Trump victory. What impact on the battlefields of Ukraine?

Who, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jin Ping, has the biggest smile on this Wednesday morning? Definitely the Russian president. He can now count on an America which will initiate, under the future presidency of Donald Trump, a complete reversal of posture on the Ukrainian question.

So far, under the Biden administration, the United States has shown full support for Kyiv. The numbers demonstrate this commitment: The United States has already dedicated more than $61 billion to Ukraine security assistance since the start of the Biden administration, including approximately $60.4 billion since the start of the Biden administration. of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022. The Pentagon has, for its part, made 69 transfers of war materials and munitions since December 2021.

The probable total victory of the Republican camp in the elections of November 5 reshuffles the cards. Especially since Donald Trump has never hidden his aversion for the costly American involvement in this distant conflict, at the gates of Europe.

Never short of formulas as powerful as they are cryptic, Donald Trump affirmed that if he were elected, he would succeed even before becoming president to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours . And to reveal on September 3: I have a very specific plan” then add September 27: This war should never have happened, but we will solve it without explaining how he intended to go about it.

Details were provided by future Vice President JD Vance who declared that the Trump administration would provide for a ceasefire on the current positions of the two armies, then the establishment of a demilitarized zone on Ukrainian territory, along the front line. Furthermore, Ukraine would maintain its independence in exchange for a guarantee of neutrality; it could therefore not join NATO or other allied institutions .

Such a plan corresponds to the imposition of the scenario of a frozen conflict Korean style which would ensure Moscow lasting control over the 18.2% of Ukrainian territory (Crimea included) under the control of the Russian army. An army whose notable and constant progress in the Donbass (East) testifies to the weakening of the Ukrainian forces incapable of recruiting massively and regenerating their bloodless combat brigades.

What other impacts?

On Russia.

Moscow has every interest in continuing the offensive in the Donbass and in conquering new positions between Pokrovsk and Kharkiv. Over the next eleven weeks (until January 20, 2025 and the inauguration of the new American president), the Russian army is expected to intensify its offensive efforts to advance westward, in the direction of the Dnieper River which it would not, however, reach.

On Ukraine.

If American abandonment materializes with a cessation of financial and military aid and direct American-Russian negotiations, the kyiv regime will find itself in a perilous position. Both militarily since Western arms transfers will slow down significantly and politically since Ukrainian public opinion risks holding President Zelensky to account and making him the scapegoat for a funny defeat .

On Europe.

Taking up the accusation regularly made by Donald Trump, JD Vance missed no opportunity to throw barbs at Europe which has underfunded this war while American taxpayers have been very generous .

Hence the worried comment from Joseph Henrotin, the editor-in-chief of the defense and strategy review DSIon X, this Wednesday morning: “ Difficult times for Ukraine. It's not just the loss of US support, it's also the cascading effect on paralyzed Europeans ». An opinion shared by socialist MEP Raphaël Glucksmann: We are now, in Europe, alone facing our destiny ».

Letting a Trump administration impose its peace plan, or even begin a new military withdrawal from Europe, is to run the risk of giving rein to an imperialist Russia which could threaten the entire eastern flank of Europe, from Finland to Georgia.