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Some 244 million Americans are called to the polls this Tuesday to elect the new tenant of the White House, at the end of a dizzying campaign, punctuated by multiple twists and turns: two assassination attempts and a criminal conviction against the former president Republican, Donald Trump, as well as the surprise emergence of the current vice-president, Kamala Harris, replacing a tired Joe Biden unable to continue after a disastrous debate at the end of June. If around a third of voters – 78.5 million – have already voted in advance, the battle between the Democratic candidate and the Republican billionaire continued until the last minute on Monday, the former having held a final meeting in Philadelphia , in Pennsylvania, while the second gathered his supporters in Grand Rapids, Michigan, two key states. More than $2.6 billion has also been spent by the two contenders since March, according to AdImpact, an analytics company.

Who will be elected president?

For the presidency, everything will be played out at the state level. Each has a number of electors equivalent to the number of its elected representatives in Congress (House of Representatives and Senate). California, the most populous state, offers fifty-four electoral votes while Alaska and Wyoming offer only three. The winner of the election in a state wins all the electors proposed (“winner takes all), except in Maine and Nebraska, which have a special system. In total, 538 electoral votes will be allocated this Tuesday. The winner will therefore have to obtain at least 270 to win.

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However, only a handful of key states (“swing states“) can still change, as most are already won by one or the other party. This year, there are seven: Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In these territories, the latest opinion polls do not give a clear trend, the two candidates being close to each other, with a gap of less than three points.

Who will have the majority in the Senate?

The Americans are not just choosing their president this Tuesday. A third of the Senate – 34 seats – is in fact renewed. The Democrats, who currently have the majority with 51 senators out of 100, are in great danger since they are calling into play 23 mandates, compared to 11 among their Republican opponents. As with the presidential election, the votes in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and even Ohio, where the incumbents are Democrats, will be particularly close. Kamala Harris' party is also expected to lose two seats in rural America, in Montana and West Virginia. No Republican seems in great danger, although an eye should be kept on Texas with Ted Cruz and Nebraska. This would give a narrow majority for the Grand Old Party (GOP).

Who will have the majority in the House of Representatives?

Renewed entirely every two years, the House of Representatives is no exception to the rule. The narrow Republican majority of 2022, 221 elected to 214, is thus put into play. Of the 435 seats, 175 on the Democratic side and 191 on the Republican side are practically guaranteed not to fall into the opposing camp. The last 69, however, will be more contested. Unsurprisingly, they are located in key states and in the most populated territories (California, Texas, New York). The race should definitely be very close.

What are the results of the other ballots?

Finally, voters in 41 states vote this Tuesday in 146 referendums. The main theme of the Democratic campaign, the guarantee of the right to abortion for women will be put to the vote in nine states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada and South Dakota). Which will not be without influence on the other ballots. The legalization of recreational cannabis will be proposed in Florida and North Dakota while the increase in the state's minimum wage may also be decided in Alaska, California and Missouri.