This price rally echoes last year's Doge Day rally, although the celebration alone is not behind DOGE's recent gains. This analysis thus examines the main catalysts behind Dogecoin's uptrend and explores what could now lie ahead.
Dogecoin owes (another one) to Elon Musk on Doge Day
A month ago, Dogecoin was worth $0.10; today, its price is at $0.17, representing a growth of 55% over the last 30 days. Several factors together contributed to this significant increase.
The main catalyst appears to be the traditional “celebrative” Doge Day surge, with the Dogecoin community embracing a second Doge Day celebration in the fourth quarter since 2023. Additionally, Elon Musk's recent public support for US Republican candidate Donald Trump has likely increased interest in DOGE, alongside the influence the Tesla CEO already holds within the community.
Last year, a few weeks after the celebration, the price of the cryptocurrency increased from $0.076 to $0.10. Today, knowing that the price is increasing and decoupling from the general market trend, it would now appear to follow a similar pattern to last year.
Furthermore, Musk's publications on his proposed “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) also had a positive impact on the price of the same number 1 coin.
On-chain indicators remain bullish
Following this development, the divergence of Adjusted Daily Active Addresses (DAA) has remained consistently positive. This metric measures whether user engagement is strong enough to keep the price rising.
When it is negative, it means that the upward trend is weak and that the price may retract. But since it is positive, the price of Dogecoin could continue to rise.
To go further: Dogecoin (DOGE) vs Shiba Inu (SHIB): What is the difference?
Regarding Elon Musk's influence on Dogecoin and Donald Trump's potential victory, analyst CryptoGodJohn suggests that the same coin could benefit from these developments
Additionally, data from IntoTheBlock indicates that Dogecoin has seen a surge in short-term holders.
“If Trump wins, it looks like DOGE is one of the easier plays if they form the ‘Department of Government Efficiency,’” the analyst wrote on X.
The “Balance By Time Held” metric revealed that the number of investors holding DOGE over the past 30 days increased compared to those who held the asset over the past year. This change suggests increased interest and trading activity among new market participants, potentially contributing to the recent price rally.
DOGE Price Prediction: Higher Highs
According to previous analysis by BeInCrypto, Dogecoin price has formed an ascending wedge pattern. This technical pattern often signals a continuation of the uptrend after a brief consolidation phase.
If confirmed, this ascending wedge could indicate that DOGE price is preparing for a further rise, potentially catalyzed by the recent developments mentioned above. In this case, the Dogecoin price could then increase by 30% and reach $0.19 from its recent local low at $0.15.
On the other hand, external factors like a Donald Trump defeat could trigger a sell-off as Elon Musk's impact on Dogecoin might not be enough to maintain its strength. In this case, the price could fall back to $0.17.
Moral of the story: One Doge Day isn't everything.
Disclaimer
Disclaimer: In accordance with The Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to providing accurate and unbiased information, but market conditions may change without notice. Always do your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions.
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