For weeks, and the endless offensive of the Israeli army against Gaza and then southern Lebanon, no dialogue has resulted between the Israeli, American, Egyptian and Qatari mediators. Many of the Israelis, without any other choice, supported Benjamin Netanyahu in the war between the Hebrew State and the two Islamist organizations, but they have always been extremely critical of his action to free the hostages.
Each time talks resumed, Israel sent a delegation, showed itself to be open, then ended up sweeping away all hope. Virulent attacks on “Bibi’s” lack of strategy are flooding into public opinion without the Israeli Prime Minister having ever put the hostages file back on the top of his pile of priorities. What if all this had been masterfully orchestrated?
Les « sinwar leaks »
In an article in the Israeli newspaper Yedhot Araonot, discussing the publication of sensitive documents, the “Sinwar leaks”, we learn more about the Prime Minister’s deliberate strategy to deceive Israeli opinion, in order to pursue the war above all and relegate the question of hostages in the background. This article discusses the disclosure of classified documents in Israel, involving leaks of sensitive intelligence and a political disinformation campaign, which aimed to manipulate Israelis.
Several individuals, including a spokesperson for the Prime Minister’s Office and other suspects, allegedly had access to secret information without proper security clearance, with the apparent complicity of some members of the government. Several people have already been arrested in connection with these suspicions. The affair, a little complex, consists of several parts. We are first talking about a leak of classified documents from defense institutions, which could represent real risks for national security, because the publication of this information could reveal sensitive operational methods.
Then, an individual, having at the time failed the security tests required for such files, would have had access to sensitive areas. An individual who is nevertheless present during confidential meetings and trips of the Prime Minister himself. There is also talk of the manipulation of certain secret documents within the Prime Minister’s office, potentially compromising national security, and which have allegedly leaked.
Finally, there would have been the implementation of a sophisticated disinformation campaign which aimed to deceive the Israelis by explaining to them why the hostages were not released, and making Hamas solely responsible for the failure.
The orchestration of an Israeli disinformation campaign
This campaign would have been orchestrated from scratch to create a diversion and above all to avoid an official investigation in Israel into the why and how of the failure to free the Israeli hostages. The article clearly confirms that Prime Minister Netanyahu was reluctant to accept an agreement to release the hostages due to political pressure and especially the fear of seeing his coalition shattered. For what ? Because releasing the prisoners “whatever it costs” meant negotiating and making compromises.
Netanyahu, who did everything to return to power and intends to stay there, owes his salvation only to the support of the two ultra-right supremacist and racist parties led by Itamar Ben Gvir, the Minister of National Security, and Bezalel Smotrich, that of finance. However, these two kingmakers for “Bibi” do not want to discuss or negotiate anything since October 7, but to put an end to Hamas and in fact Hezbollah. They also want to put an end to the Palestinians, Palestine, and the Arabs. Many traumatized Israelis, after the human cataclysm of October 7, were of the same opinion of course, but not necessarily at all costs. This is where the problem lies: we want the end of Hamas and we want the release of the hostages at the same time.
The sacrifice of hostages for political survival
It did not happen like that, but through a number of documents disseminated in public opinion and the media, Netanyahu sought to systematically hold Hamas responsible for the failure of all ceasefire negotiations. and release of hostages. Above all, Hamas wanted the release of Palestinian prisoners. But what to think when we know that Yahya Sinouar, the instigator and conductor of October 7, spent 20 years in Israeli jails, and was finally released during the 2011 release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit detained in Gaza for 5 years?
Nearly 13 months after the tragedy, there are only around fifty Israeli prisoners still alive in the Hamas tunnels. And as it is happening, it is a safe bet that everyone will die gradually, in terrible conditions, because Netanyahu is faced with an impasse, his impasse: if he discusses, if he negotiates, he loses the support of his coalition, and his government falls. Out of the question for him to stop on such a “good path”, when he managed to eliminate the main leaders and executives of Hamas and Hezbollah, to let the laurels rest on a hypothetical successor.
But the continuation of the investigation, and the consequences of the arrest of certain individuals close to the affair, as well as the inexorable rise in the anger of Israelis who have been waiting for the return of their loved ones for a year, may well hinder a little further ahead for Netanyahu, accused for years of petty political calculations for his own survival. This time, it would be the biggest political scandal he has caused for one of the worst tragedies Israel has known since its birth. The letters of Netanyahu’s name may well remain branded in the memory of all Israelis.
In the meantime, Netanyahu is having some bad blood during the interrogation that the main suspect arrested, who is one of his relatives, and who is at the center of the current affair, will undergo. Will Netanyahu then have no choice but to finally resign? And what risk would Israel take in a period of regional chaos the likes of which it has rarely experienced since its creation?
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Doctor in political science, Arab world and geopolitics researcher, teacher in international relations at IHECS (Brussels), associated with CNAM Paris (Defence Security Team), at the Institute of Applied Geopolitics Studies (IEGA Paris), at NORDIC CENTER FOR CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION (NCCT Stockholm) and the Geostrategic Observatory of Geneva (Switzerland).
Canada
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