West Africa – Updated key messages: Prices will remain above average despite improved availability from the October, September 2024 harvests – Nigeria

Key messages

• The mid-term evaluation of the 2024/25 agropastoral campaign carried out by the meeting of the PREGEC of September 2024, estimates cereal production in the Sahel and West Africa (not including production in Senegal and Liberia) at 68.5 and 80 million tonnes, a drop of 7 percent compared to last year. , but an increase of 9 percent compared to the five-year average under the low hypothesis. Regarding the high hypothesis reflecting a good end to the season, cereal production could increase by 9 percent compared to the previous campaign and by 12 percent compared to the five-year average. However, declines in cereal production are anticipated in certain countries such as Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone due to a rainfall deficit recorded at the start of this campaign. Dry sequences lasting more than twenty (20) consecutive days have been observed in certain localities of Burkina Faso. On the pastoral level, the availability of water is generally satisfactory for watering livestock, however, with regard to fodder production, pockets of deficit are reported in certain regions of Niger, Chad and Mali.
• Livelihoods continue to deteriorate in the areas of Liptako Gourma and the Lake Chad basin due to the persistence of the security crisis which continues to lead to population movements, even if returns of displaced people are recorded in places. . In September 2024, 3,187,793 displaced persons are registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, including 66 percent percent in Burkina Faso, and 6,069,325 displaced people in the Lake Chad basin, 73 percent of whom are in Nigeria. Livelihoods, activities linked to markets, trade, transhumance movements as well as access to basic social services are strongly disrupted in these areas. According to IOM, we are increasingly observing an extension of this security crisis towards coastal countries (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin) with approximately 144,315 displaced persons recorded in September 2024.
• Prices were mostly stable or increasing from August to September in the Sahel at the end of the lean season, while they were down seasonally in coastal countries where harvests have already started. Prices remained significantly above their five-year average levels across the region due to factors including below-average inventories, significant demand, prolonged insecurity, macroeconomic challenges, cross-border trade restrictions, high transportation costs and recent recent flooding. These, along with a further significant depreciation of the naira and increase in fuel prices, have also lifted Nigeria’s overall inflation after two months of decline. In perspective, seasonal price declines will predominate with the harvests beginning in the Sahel. However, expected production shortfalls linked to agro-climatic shocks (e.g. dry spells and floods) in several parts of the region, persistent trade restrictions and insecurity will keep prices above average.
• The majority of areas will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until January 2024 and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some. In areas affected by civil insecurity, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity which is underway in the West, East and North Center in Niger, the Sahelo-Saharan strip and the Lake area in Chad, in the West and North-West of Mali, in the Far West, in the Center and in the East of Nigeria and in the South-West, the North-West and the Far North of Cameroon will persist until January 2025. The Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will continue in Chad, Mali, Niger and the above-mentioned states in Nigeria. The situation will persist in the Far North, North West and South West regions of Cameroon.
• The Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) will be observed in the provinces of Loroum, Soum, Bam, Oudalan and Tapoa in Burkina Faso until January 2025. The Emergency level (IPC Phase 4) currently observed in Inaccessible LGAs of the northeastern states of Nigeria (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) in Nigeria will continue until January 2025 due to very limited household food stocks, disruptions to livelihoods, and access to them. limited to markets and humanitarian aid. From June, this level of food insecurity will continue in the Ménaka region of Mali due to degraded security conditions which limit the population’s access to markets as well as the pronounced deterioration of their means of existence.
• From October 2024, the majority of areas will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until January 2025 thanks to the availability of crops which will improve access seasonality of populations to food. In areas affected by civil insecurity, Crisis food insecurity! (IPC Phase 3!) will be observed in the Loroum, Bam, Komandjari, Seno, Soum, Yagha, Oudalan, Kompienga and Tapoa provinces in Burkina Faso. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will be observed in the regions of Tillabéry, Tahoua de Maradi and Diffa in Niger. The Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) will also be observed in Ménaka in Mali due to the improvement in conditions of access to food for poor households thanks to livestock products, in the same regions of Chad cited above and the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon. However, in Nigeria, the inaccessible LGAs of the northeastern states of Nigeria (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) in Nigeria will remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) until January 2025 due to negative impacts on the conditions of access to food and the livelihoods of populations.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. West Africa Updated key messages September 2024: Prices will remain above average despite improved availability from the October 2024 harvests.