three months after the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk, Moscow is making progress on the front

October 31, 2024, at 980^e day of the Russian “special operation”, the situation on the ground for the two belligerents is approximately the same as that of November 2022, after the surprise counter-offensive by kyiv, which had liberated a dozen thousand square kilometers . Since then, Russia has nibbled away at the front line mainly in the east and south of the country, before moving up a gear in the summer of 2024 – and gaining around 1,500 km² since June. This is the strongest advance by Russian troops since the start of the large-scale invasion in February 2022.

Moscow controlled approximately 17.95% of Ukrainian territory at the end of October 2024 (as of March 2022, it occupied just over a quarter), with a gain of approximately 540 km² in a month.

This graph does not take into account the Ukrainian incursion into Russia, in the Kursk oblast, over an area of ​​approximately 600 km² at the end of October, according to War Mapper, the equivalent of what Russia conquered in Ukraine between April and August 2024.