A few days before the American elections, concern is high in Ukraine. Continued U.S. military aid is subject to the outcome of the ballot box.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States has clearly positioned itself for kyiv and against Moscow. What will Washington’s position be after these elections? On this issue, the positions of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are not as clear-cut as one might think.
The main thing for both candidates has been, since the start of the campaign, to reassure the Americans about a commitment by the United States which has already been costly and could end up, in the worst case, threatening the lives of American soldiers. The equation is all the more delicate as it involves defending, via NATO, allies against Russia – still considered the long-standing enemy -, without entering into direct confrontation.
Peace in Ukraine, according to Trump
On this issue, Donald Trump presents himself as the one who could bring peace. He constantly reminds us that unlike his predecessors in the White House, he is the only president who did not lead America into war. Last April, he said he was capable of negotiating a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours. According to sources from Washington PostTrump’s idea is to pressure Ukraine to cede part of its territory, as the Russian president demands.
Between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, the former American president continues to balance things out. He has never hidden his admiration for the Russian president, going so far as not to take a position on the death of Alexeï Navalny, nor to mention the release of Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal journalist detained in Russia without cause.
Cautiously, President Zelensky said that he “did not hear” the Republican candidate say that he would not support his country.
If Trump seeks to reassure the Ukrainian president with a peace plan that he has never officially detailed, he remains very ambiguous on NATO and does not hide his opposition to kyiv’s membership.
“Former President Trump’s inexplicable and admiring relationship with Putin, as well as his unprecedented hostility toward NATO, cannot give Europe or Ukraine any confidence in its relations with Russia “, declared to the Washington Post Tom Donilon, United States national security advisor under the Obama administration between 2010 and 2013. This geopolitics expert is also president of the Blackrock Investment Institute.
“His position represents a clear and present danger to the security of the United States and Europe,” concludes Tom Donilon.
In the Blackrock Geopolitical Risk Dashboard which lists the top ten global risks, it states that the war in Ukraine “is the largest and most dangerous military conflict in Europe since World War II.” For Tom Donilon, this is nothing more than a war between NATO and Russia.
Continuing Joe Biden’s line
For her part, Kamala Harris says she wants to continue support for Ukraine as President Biden has done.
She promises to remain “firmly alongside Ukraine” and affirms that she will not make “friends” with “the dictators” by targeting Vladimir Putin, but also Kim Jong-Un or the mullahs of the Islamic Republic of ‘Iran.
A way of remembering that Iran supplies weapons to Russia and, for North Korea, missiles and recently several thousand soldiers who have come to fight against the Ukrainian army.
Since replacing Joe Biden in the race for the White House, Kamala Harris has increased announcements of aid to Ukraine. In June, during the Ukraine Peace Summit held in Switzerland, she announced $1.5 billion for the energy sector and humanitarian aid.
In September, during the Ukrainian president’s visit to Washington, it was again she who announced new military aid of 8 billion dollars and the sending of long-range munitions.
On this occasion, Kamala Harris also assured President Zelensky that her “support for the Ukrainian people is unwavering”.
Thomas Philippon, economist and professor at New York University – 10/09
Without quoting Donald Trump but implicitly targeting him, she believes that the peace plan which would consist of convincing Ukraine to give up its territories, as Putin demands, “is not a peace proposal”.
“These are proposals for capitulation, which is dangerous and irresponsible,” she added.
Despite this support, Kamala Harris remains vague on continued military aid to Ukraine.
Do not divide voters
The vagueness maintained by the two candidates aims to avoid raising a subject which could create a divide among voters. Especially since the United States has had to support Israel militarily and financially for a year while preparing for a conflict in the Indo-Pacific, between China and Taiwan.
This situation leaves Ukrainians fearing a reduction in military aid. Since the start of the conflict, Washington has been at the head of Ukraine’s 50 allied or partner countries, as recalled in a Pentagon report published on October 21, 2024.
“We have provided more than $64.1 billion in military assistance since Russia launched its full-scale invasion … on February 24, 2022,” the Pentagon report said.
Between 2014 (invasion of Crimea) and 2022, military aid reached $66.9 billion. To this amount, we must also add $31.7 billion in equipment taken from the Department of Defense (DoD) stocks, for a total of $98.6 billion. An amount impossible to compensate by the Europeans.
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