To receive the keys to the White House, a candidate in the US presidential election must win 270 votes in the electoral college. Made up of 538 electors — distributed according to the demographic weight of each state — the electoral college has the mandate to elect the president and vice-president of the United States. For almost all states, the electoral votes are allocated en bloc to the candidate who won the majority of votes, according to the “winner takes all” system (“ winner-takes-all »).
Everything suggests that 43 states out of 50 are already won by one or the other party – the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, should get her hands on 226 votes in the electoral college and the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, on 219.
The November 5 election will therefore be played out in the seven key states (swing states), totaling 93 electors, where the two candidates are neck and neck. To seal victory, Harris will need a minimum of 44 votes and Trump, 51.
At the end of the race, several scenarios are possible. Duty presents five of them to you.
Scenario 1: Harris wins Rust Belt states
The easiest path to victory for Kamala Harris would be to win the three key Rust Belt states: Michigan (15 votes), Pennsylvania (19 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes). This scenario would give him exactly the 270 electors required.
These three Midwestern states are often referred to as the “blue wall” (“blue wall”). blue wall “). “It was thanks to his victory in these states that Joe Biden was able to win the election against Donald Trump in 2020,” recalls William F. Hall, assistant professor of political science at Webster University in Saint Louis, Missouri.
The choice of Tim Walz — originally from Minnesota, another Midwestern state — as Kamala Harris' running mate is certainly not unrelated to the Democrats' desire to chart their path to victory through these three states, says Samara Klar, professor of political science at the University of Arizona.
Over the past 30 years, these three Rust Belt swing states have been significantly more favorable to Democrats, but Trump is currently tied with Harris in the polls there. “A large number of voters in these states are white, working class and without a college degree, and Trump has generally done well with voters with this demographic profile,” Professor Hall points out.
The Washington Post and CNN, however, report that in these three states — where religion is less present than elsewhere and where unions remain strong — Democrats do better than elsewhere in the country with white voters without a college degree.
One thing is certain, if the blue wall holds up, it will certainly live up to its name.
Scenario 2: Harris loses one of the Rust Belt states, but wins Georgia or North Carolina
If a breach opens in the blue wall, other paths to victory remain possible for Kamala Harris. Since replacing Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, the party has risen in the polls in the four key states of the Sun Belt, which makes it possible to consider several other combinations.
“If she loses Michigan (15 votes) or Wisconsin (10 votes), she could replace either of those states with a victory in another key state, such as Georgia (16 votes) or Carolina of the North (16 votes), where it remains very competitive,” analyzes William F. Hall.
But if Harris loses Pennsylvania (19 votes), her road to the White House will be much more complicated. “It is the pivotal state which holds the greatest number of electoral votes,” points out Samara Klar. Winning Pennsylvania would make the path to victory much easier for either candidate and would take a lot of pressure off the need to win more of the smaller swing states. »
In the event that Pennsylvania escapes Harris, “she would have to compensate for this loss [de 19 grands électeurs] by a victory in two other key states, for example by winning Georgia (16 votes) and North Carolina (16 votes), or by achieving a combination with Nevada (6 votes) or Arizona (11 votes) “, explains Professor Hall.
Another less likely, but still possible, scenario would be that Harris wins the four key Sun Belt states, totaling 49 electors. The doors of the White House would then open to the Democratic candidate without her even needing to get her hands on a Rust Belt state. Recall that in 2020, Biden won Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, but not North Carolina.
Scenario 3: Trump wins the Sun Belt and a Rust Belt state
For Trump, the easiest path to victory would be to capture the four key Sun Belt states: Georgia (16 votes) and North Carolina (16 votes) in the east, as well as Arizona (11 votes) and Nevada (6 votes) in the west. Such a roundup would ensure the vote of 49 electors. All he would then have to do is win a state in the Rust Belt to cross the threshold of 270 electors.
North Carolina voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020; the Republicans therefore have a lot of hope there. No Democrat has won this state since 2008. The ex-president also won Georgia and Arizona in 2016. But these two states slipped from his hands by a margin of just over 10 000 votes in the last presidential election. A slim margin that leads Republicans to believe that these states could swing again and chart Trump's path to the presidency.
“Currently, Arizona and Georgia have more registered Republican voters than Democratic voters,” says Samara Klar. In Arizona, the issue of illegal immigration attracted a lot of attention during the election campaign, she recalls. “It’s a border state and a lot of people are unhappy with the way the border crisis has been handled. This is therefore an issue that could favor the Republicans. » Arizona has voted Democratic in the presidential election only twice since 1952.
But other issues, like abortion rights, could attract voters to Harris. Especially since in Arizona and Nevada, referendums on abortion will be held at the same time as the presidential election on November 5. Democrats have won Nevada in the last four presidential elections. In the Rust Belt, it is difficult to know whether Trump will succeed in cracking the blue wall. Wisconsin was the state Biden won in 2020 by the smallest margin, which could pave the way for Republicans.
Scenario 4: Trump wins the Rust Belt and one of the populous Sun Belt states
Since 1992, Pennsylvania (19 votes), Michigan (15 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes) have always voted as a bloc for the same candidate. These three Midwestern states have supported Democrats in every presidential election for three decades, with the exception of 2016, when they voted for Trump.
Could the Republican bring down the blue wall once again? Such a feat would ensure the vote of 44 electors. He would then only have to win North Carolina (16 votes), Georgia (16 votes) or even Arizona (11 votes) to head to the White House. Nevada's 6 electors alone would not be enough to obtain the key number of 270 electors.
We must not lose sight in this scenario, as in the previous one, that since Trump needs to win more voters in key states than Harris (51 compared to 44), he cannot access the White House by focusing only on the Sun Belt or the Rust Belt. The Republican must absolutely succeed in a combination where he captures states in both belts (unless there is a tie, as we will see in the next scenario).
In the context of such a close election, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's racist joke at a Trump rally a few days ago, comparing Puerto Rico to a “floating island of garbage,” could cost him valuable votes among Latinos — who represent 30% of the electorate in Arizona and 28% in Nevada, notes William F. Hall.
“I think this is a significant incident and that the damage has been done,” he says. Likewise, Joe Biden's response, who said that it is Trump supporters who are trash, could harm Harris, who is trying to attract moderate Republicans to her ranks, adds the professor.
Scenario 5: a tie
The astonishing scenario of a tie in the electoral college is mathematically possible. To arrive at a total of 269 electors in the two camps – which would create a tie – it would be necessary, for example, for Trump to win the four states of the Sun Belt (49 votes) and for Harris to retain the three states of the Rust Belt (44 votes), but that the 2e Nebraska's congressional district (currently allocated to Harris) swings back to Trump's side (the district voted for the Republican in 2016, but not in 2020).
Nebraska and Maine are the only two U.S. states where electors are not assigned according to the “winner-takes-all” system. In these states, one at-large elector is elected for each congressional district according to the local popular vote (and two other at-large electors are allocated to the candidate who won the state).
If such a tie occurs, the United States Constitution provides that the winner will be determined by the House of Representatives, where each state will have one vote — a method that could favor Republicans. The vice president will be elected by the Senate, where each senator will have one vote.
“It’s a possible scenario, but unlikely,” says Samara Klar. A tie would be a first in history. But these days, nothing should be excluded in American politics. »
William F. Hall, for his part, fears that such a neck and neck could cause the country to sink into a dark era. “If it's very close or tied, I think we could see a repeat of what happened on January 6, 2020 [avec l’invasion du Capitole]. » The United States absolutely needs a clear winner in this election, he adds. “Because I feel like it’s the only way to avoid chaos.” »
To watch on video
Related News :