Here is the day and time of year when you are most likely to die in France

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Will we be able to know, one day, the date of our death? When will this fateful day come? INSEE, the national institute of statistics and economic studies, delved into the figures, in a vast study published this Wednesday, October 30, 2024, just before All Saints' Day, and tried to provide the beginning of an answer . Finally, for those who really want to know her.

The institute compiled the number of deaths recorded each day, between 2004 and 2023, with the aim of answering this question: “Which day do people die the most in France?” “.

Enough to give you an idea. Finally, if you want it…

1600 deaths per day on average

In detail, around 1,600 people died on average every day over this 19-year period. A number which has been increasing almost constantly since 2011 “due to the arrival at ages of high mortality of the large baby boom generations, born from 1946 to 1974” and which varies during certain events such as epidemic waves (Covid -19, flu).

Among people aged 30 to 59, deaths actually vary little depending on the month of the year. But among young people and the elderly, on the other hand, the difference is much more visible.

From 2004 to 2023, the summer months (June, July, August and September) were the least deadly, with an undermortality of -8% or -9% compared to the entire period, which is explained in particular by a reduced circulation of seasonal viruses. Conversely, the winter months were the deadliest, with excess mortality of +9% in December, +14% in January, +12% in February and +6% in March.

Older people die less in summer than in winter

According to this data, those over 60 are much more likely to die in winter than in summer.

We thus note an excess mortality of +9% in December, +14% in January and +12% in February in this age group. It even rises to + 21% in January and + 18% in February among those over 90!

So, contrary to popular belief, older people die less during the hottest time of the year.

And the heatwave of 2003? It was just before this statistical study. The cumulative number of excess deaths had been approximately 14,800 between 1^is and August 20, an increase of 60% compared to expected mortality.

And “following this heatwave in 2003, the public authorities set up a system for monitoring heat waves and preventive measures aimed in particular at the most vulnerable people,” explains INSEE.

Sunday is the least deadly day of the week

And among young people, on the other hand, it is the opposite: they tend to die more in summer than in winter. These deaths also often take place on public roads or in public places: this represents 27% of deaths among 18-29 year olds compared to only 1% for the entire population.

And overall, reveals INSEE, fewer people die on Saturdays (-1%), Sundays (-2.7%) and public holidays than the rest of the time. Sunday is thus the least deadly day of the week.

As with public holidays, the lower mortality on Sunday could be explained by a lower number of treatments and interventions scheduled for that day: hospital deaths decrease a little more than the average on Sundays. (-4%, against -3%).

And another element highlighted: the social bond. Visits from family or friends to sick people, undoubtedly more frequent on weekends, could play a role: deaths at home also occur less often on weekends (-2% on Saturday and Sunday), but are increasing on Monday (+4%).

This is also the case in retirement homes, but the differences between weekends and Mondays are smaller there.

The considerable impact of social ties

And so it is on Tuesday when excess mortality is highest (+ 1.2%). A difference which can be explained precisely by the visits made by families to their sick or elderly loved ones on weekends, which helps prevent certain deaths.

Deaths on public holidays are less common. In hospitals, they decrease more during public holidays: for example, -5% at Christmas compared to the three preceding and following days, compared to -2% for all places of death combined. This could be explained by less frequent treatment and a lower number of interventions scheduled during these usual rest days.

And, ultimately, what is the deadliest day? It is therefore January 3with around 1,900 deaths each year, an increase of 19%. It is a “winter day” which “follows the end of year celebrations”, comments INSEE, during which some people at the end of their lives were able to hold on thanks to their loved ones only to finally die just afterwards. In addition, this period corresponds to a resumption of scheduled surgical operations.

Conversely, it is on August 15 that the least number of people die in France, with a reduction, compared to the average, of almost 12%. And a lower number of interventions scheduled on these days at the hospital.

The “birthday syndrome”

Among young people aged 18 to 29, mortality is much higher on weekends than on weekdays (+11.1% deaths on Saturdays, +13.6% on Sundays). Young people are more concerned by accidental deaths, particularly on the road, which therefore occur more often during outings, sometimes involving alcohol, at the end of the week.

And finally, therefore, if there is a day on which one must be particularly careful, it is that of… one's own birthday: the risk of dying increases on average in the French population by 6% compared to the rest of the year !

This figure even soars for young adults, and more particularly men: from 18 to 39 years old, there is an excess mortality of 24% among men on their birthday.

“This phenomenon, called “birthday syndrome”, has been observed in other countries such as Switzerland or the United States,” recalls INSEE. Several hypotheses are put forward: road accidents, again, falls and cardiovascular accidents more frequent that day which could be explained by excesses (alcohol, fatigue due to the party, etc.).

The desire to reach the day of one's birthday could delay the occurrence of death for people at the end of life.

Beyond the age of 50, the risk of dying on your birthday remains higher than on another day, but to a lesser extent: the mortality gap is +5% or +6% depending on the age group. ages. However, centenarians stand out: the average number of deaths on 100th birthday is 29% higher than the average number of daily deaths for people of the same age.

If you are worried about a loved one or if you have suicidal thoughts, you can call 3114. Free, this service offers professional and confidential listening, 24/7, by specifically trained nurses and psychologists.

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