What impact do evangelists really have on the American presidential election?

«Jesus allied himself with imperfect messengers, and Trump is an imperfect messenger“, declared Ralph Reed, spokesperson for evangelicalism, involved in politics since Reagan and president of the Republican Party of Georgia, during the 2016 presidential campaign. On the eve of each presidential election in the United States, the role of the evangelical electorate resurfaces, highlighting their determining influence in electoral results.

With more than one in five Americans identifying as evangelical, this group looms large in the electorate. Mostly white, these Christians form a compact electoral bloc. In 2016, 77% of them voted for Donald Trump, a figure which rose to 84% in 2020, constituting a record for a Republican candidate, according to a note from Amnesty International published in 2022. American evangelicalism It relies on a mosaic of pastors, influencers and theologians, without central authority, unlike Catholicism. Around 91 million out of 333 million Americans claim to belong to this movement.

Between loyalty to Trump and political radicalization

Evangelical support for Trump has highlighted a controversial dimension of this movement. When Mike Pence, then vice-president, certified Joe Biden's victory in 2020, he attracted the wrath of this evangelical base. This episode marked a radicalization of political evangelicalism, which, according to Amnesty International, has “merged with Trumpism and its most paranoid tendencies“. In 2020, after Trump's defeat, partisan pastors cried election theft, giving new momentum to the ReAwaken America Tour movement, a far-right rally co-founded by businessman Clay Clark.

As proof, during the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, some Trump supporters chanted “we're going to hang Mike Pence» or brandished signs proclaiming “Jesus Saves“. This unwavering support of evangelicals for Trump reveals a strategy of influence and power that extends beyond American borders, making them key players not only in American politics but also on the world stage. Today, they form the second largest Christian center after Catholicism, with a growing geopolitical reach.

The “Bible Belt”: evangelical bastion and pillar of the Republican Party

In the Bible Belta belt in the South of the United States bringing together states like Oklahoma, evangelicals have consolidated their political influence, redefining the Republican agenda. In this conservative state, where more than 80% of representatives are Republican, the conservative Christian political model continues to prevail, making religion a strategic weapon in electoral campaigns.

Blandine Chelini-Pont, professor of contemporary history at the University of Aix-Marseille and doctor of law, observes that “Radical voices, often mediated by social media, appear to dominate public debate, although demographically, evangelicals and other Christians are in decline“. This evangelical current, which is similar to “a lobby”, finally “contaminated the Republican party, whose DNA initially was not to be close to these movements”she continues.

«The more fundamentalist the supporters, the more they support radical positions, especially among the working classes, advocating the idea that “America is in decline” because of those who are not “real Americans.”“, says the specialist. In other words, this movement promotes the idea that the “real United States” is fundamentally Christian, and some political leaders, such as Donald Trump, are committed to strengthening this influence. However, many Christians and evangelicals do not recognize themselves in this vision and distance themselves from this polarizing discourse, particularly on sensitive subjects such as the legality of abortion, of which the Supreme Court repealed the constitutional right in 2022, a decision which deeply divided the American nation.

Donald Trump, the chosen one of the evangelists

The influence of evangelicals is not limited to the religious domain. In terms of education, their demographic weight, particularly in Texas, directly shapes the content of American school textbooks. Indeed, the Texas Board of Education, made up of 15 members often aligned with evangelical ideals, determines the content of school books used nationally. This conservative model, forged in Texan schools, thus ends up permeating the teaching of other States, giving rise to numerous debates.

Evangelical support for the Republican political movement has been further strengthened under the influence of Donald Trump. In 2018, Trump created the “Faith and Opportunity Initiative», a federal office intended to promote religious initiatives. According to him, “faith is more powerful than government, and nothing is more powerful than God“, he proclaimed when signing this decree. With this gesture, Trump consolidated his bond with evangelicals, a bond that he continues to cultivate.

On October 28 in Atlanta, a national summit on faith brought together evangelical leaders who support Donald Trump in his campaign for the White House. In one striking scene, pastors prayed for God to grant “strength and wisdom» to the former president. Jack Graham, an influential evangelical figure, led the prayer, declaring that Trump was a “warrior of the word of God“, urging God to raise him to power again.