What day of the year are you most likely to die?

Two days before All Saints' Day, INSEE published a study which calculates the probabilities of dying based on the days of the year. The statistics institute based itself on data from its last twenty years in France.

The day of the year when you are most likely to die

From 2004 to 2023, January 3 was the deadliest day of the yearwith an average number of deaths of 1,900, compared to 1,600 over the entire period, notes INSEE.

The authors explain this particularity by the fact that it is a winter day, which follows the end of year celebrations. “The desire to spend these holidays with loved onesas well as that of reaching a new year could delay the occurrence of death of people at the end of life and partly explain this peak”, they write. In addition, this period corresponds to a resumption of scheduled surgical operations.

The day of the year when you are least likely to die

In contrast, August 15 is the least deadly daywith 1,410 daily deaths on average, i.e. – 12% compared to the entire period. “It is a summer day, which is a public holiday. However, deaths on public holidays are less common“, explains the institute.

Indeed, on Christmas Day, the undermortality is – 2% compared to the days preceding or following – even if the number of deaths is higher on average, due to the winter season. Hospital deaths also decrease more on public holidays. “This could be explained by less frequent care and a lower number of interventions scheduled during these usual rest days.” On the other hand, deaths on the road or in a public place increase on most public holidays.

The day of the week you are most likely to die

All ages and places of death combined, the deadliest day of the week is Tuesdaywith 1,620 deaths on average, or an excess mortality of + 1%, while the least deadly is Sunday, with 1,550 deaths, followed by Saturday, with 1,580 deaths. Among children under one year old, deaths drop very sharply on Sundays and increase on Fridays.

As with public holidays, the lower mortality on Sunday could be explained by “a lower number of care and interventions scheduled on that day: hospital deaths decrease a little more than average on Sundays“. Furthermore, visits from family or friends to sick people, undoubtedly more frequent on weekends, could play a role.

On the other hand, up to the age of 29, mortality is higher on weekends. Young people are more concerned by accidental deaths, particularly on the road.