Greenhouse gas concentrations will reach record levels in 2023 according to the UN, predicting a certain increase in temperatures in the years to come. Drastic action is urgently needed to avoid the worst, but time is running out and…
In 2023, our planet has crossed an alarming threshold. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have shattered all records, propelling us inexorably towards a hotter and more uncertain future. Faced with this worrying observation, the UN is sounding the alarm and calling for immediate action to stop this dangerous spiral.
A Galloping Accumulation of CO2, Methane and Nitrous Oxide
The three main gases blamed for global warming – the infamous carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) – all saw their levels soar in 2023. The breakneck pace at which CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere is of particular concern, with a staggering increase of more than 10% in just two decades. A sad record that Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of WMO, deplores:
Another year, another record. This should ring alarm bells among policymakers. We are clearly behind the Paris Agreement target.
Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary General
The Paris Agreement in Danger
In 2015, the international community committed, when signing the Paris Climate Agreement, to containing global warming below 2°C compared to the pre-industrial era, with a more ambitious objective of 1.5°C. But given the record concentrations of greenhouse gases recorded last year, this commitment seems more compromised than ever.
Because as long as emissions continue, these gases will continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, inexorably intensifying warming. A warming of which we are already seeing the beginnings, with global temperatures on land and at sea which in 2023 reached their highest level since records began in 1850.
A Poisoned Legacy for Future Generations
The problem with CO2 is its longevity in the atmosphere. Even if we manage to drastically reduce our emissions to achieve carbon neutrality, current temperature levels, boosted by record concentrations, will persist for decades. A heavy price that future generations will have to pay.
In 2023, concentrations of CO2 will reach the unprecedented level of 420 parts per million (ppm), those of methane 1934 parts per billion (ppb) and those of nitrous oxide 336 ppb. Values up by 151%, 265% and 125% respectively compared to 1750. Dizzying figures, which are not without concrete consequences, as Celeste Saulo points out:
These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree of temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.
Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary General
The Specter of a Climatic Runaway
Beyond these direct consequences, it is a real vicious circle that threatens our planet. With climate change, ecosystems themselves could become larger emitters of greenhouse gases, further amplifying warming. A disaster scenario envisaged by Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary General of WMO:
Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, while warmer oceans could absorb less CO2. As a result, more CO2 could remain in the atmosphere and accelerate global warming.
Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary General of WMO
COP29, Last Chance Meeting?
Faced with this alarming situation, all eyes are turning to the next global climate conference, COP29, which will be held from November 11 to 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. A crucial meeting to try to reverse the trend and avoid climate change.
Because time is running out. If humanity has already experienced CO2 concentrations similar to those of today in the past, it was 3 to 5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2 to 3°C higher and sea level 10 to 20 meters higher. A return to the past that we cannot afford.
It is therefore urgent to act, to take strong and immediate measures to drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Because each year, each month, each day that passes without decisive action brings us a little closer to the point of no return. Will COP29 be the last chance meeting to save the climate? The future of our planet depends on it.
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