Taiwan | Experts predict intensification of Chinese response

(Taipei) China, which organized a major maneuver to encircle Taiwan on Monday, is likely to further intensify its response to new President Lai Ching-te’s defense of the island’s sovereignty, experts say .

Even before taking office in May, the new Taiwanese leader came into the crosshairs of Beijing, which accused him of “separatist” aims.

Sixty-five years after taking power in 1949, the Chinese Communist Party has never taken control of Taiwan, an island of 23 million inhabitants today governed democratically and which Beijing considers an integral part of its territory .

“It took about two years” after the start of the presidency of Mr. Lai’s predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, for Beijing to start criticizing her by name, notes analyst Wen-Ti Sung.

But for Lai Ching-te, the verbal attacks occurred “from the beginning,” observes this researcher working for the American think tank Atlantic Council.

Both members of the Democratic Progressive Party, Mr. Lai and Mr.^me Tsai defends the idea that Taiwan does not need to formally declare its independence, because the territory, which enjoys American military support, is de facto “already independent”.

But Mr. Lai’s use of terms stronger than those of Mr.^me Tsai’s defense of the island’s sovereignty – and criticism of Beijing – has increased China’s ire.

As early as May, Beijing conducted large-scale military maneuvers three days after its inauguration speech, described by China as an “admission of independence”.

American presidential election

On Monday, the island’s encirclement exercises came four days after Mr. Lai vowed to “resist annexation” and stressed that Beijing and Taipei were “not subordinate to either other,” during a speech on Taiwan’s National Day.

Beijing denounced “provocations” likely to cause a “catastrophe” for the Taiwanese.

“Lai Ching-te first made provocative remarks, and [l’armée chinoise] then took necessary measures to punish him,” Fu Zhengnan, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, told state media on Monday.

Taipei condemned “irrational actions” by Beijing and the United States, Taiwan’s main arms supplier, deemed them “disproportionate”.

The annual National Day speech is “usual, focused on domestic affairs” and “has historically provoked little reaction” from Beijing, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder recalled Monday.

But this time, China “seized this opportunity to engage in provocative military action,” he noted.

These latest air and maritime maneuvers lasted only one day, shorter than in previous exercises, which analysts attribute in particular to the approach of the American presidential election.

“China does not want to risk making it a campaign theme in the final weeks” of the race for the White House, believes Wen-Ti Sung.

« Phase performative »

China and Taiwan have been governed separately since 1949 and the flight of Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalist forces to the island, defeated by communist fighters led by Mao.

Ties between Beijing and Taipei have deteriorated sharply since 2016 and the inauguration of Tsai Ing-wen, who rejected the Chinese point of view maintaining that the island is part of the territory of a united China.

Beijing deploys fighter planes and ships of its navy almost daily near Taiwan and strives to exclude Taiwan from global forums and to deprive it of diplomatic allies.

Liang-Chih Evans Chen of the Taiwan-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research notes “a very big difference” in Chinese leaders’ perceptions of M^me Tsai and his successor.

“They think that Lai is more” on the side of independence, he explains to AFP, hence the increasingly “harsh” reactions from Beijing.

According to Wen-Ti Sung, China has entered a “nationalist and performative phase of its policies” regarding Taiwan and will likely engage in further shows of force soon.

“As soon as Mr. Lai delivers an important speech, we [peut] “expect that Beijing will resort to demonstrations of its discontent”, in particular via military exercises or new so-called gray zone maneuvers, that is to say hostile but not amounting to open war.

“Mr. Lai was more cautious in his National Day speech than during his inauguration,” observes Amanda Hsiao of the International Crisis Group.

But Beijing’s reaction “can only confirm Taipei’s point of view”, according to which signs of restraint do not find an echo in Beijing, the analyst wants to believe.

China has never ruled out retaking the territory by force if this proves necessary.