Given the decline in inflation and recent statements, an ECB rate cut of 0.25 percentage points is expected this Thursday.
No time to breathe: the European Central Bank should decide on Thursday to further reduce its key rates, worried about signs of economic slowdown in the euro zone where inflation seems on the verge of being brought under control.
Recent comments from members of the board of governors of the Frankfurt Monetary Institute, including the heads of the German central banks, Joachim Nagel, and French central banks, François Villeroy de Galhau, point in the direction of a third monetary relief.
“A reduction is very likely” during Thursday’s meeting, after a first rate reduction in June, and a second in September, “and it will not be the last”, indicated the governor of the Bank of France, pointing to a further drop of 0.25 percentage points.
The ECB’s deposit rate, which serves as a reference for credit conditions in the economy, would thus increase to 3.25%. “I am quite open to the idea of thinking about the possibility of taking a further step on rates,” his Bundesbank counterpart told German media Table Media.
“The evolution of inflation is part of the good news, we are clearly getting closer to our objective of 2% inflation” on an annual basis, he added.
The 26 members of the ECB Governing Council will meet in Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia, for this remote annual meeting.
Slowing inflation
If the decline is confirmed, it will be a turnaround whereas just a month ago the guardians of the euro remained cautious, giving the feeling of wanting to wait for their December meeting, the last scheduled for this year, to act.
But inflation continued to slow in September, falling to 1.8%, below the 2% threshold for the first time in more than three years. The slowdown is especially seen in the large economies, in Germany (1.6%), France (1.1%) and Italy (0.7%).
Additionally, core inflation, a widely followed indicator that excludes volatile energy and food prices, fell to 2.7% year-on-year, according to Eurostat.
Current price developments “reinforce our confidence that inflation will return to target in due time” and this will be “taken into account at the next monetary policy meeting” in October, said the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, during a notable hearing at the end of September at the European Parliament.
Release, how far?
The minutes of the ECB’s September meeting also showed concerns about growth in the euro zone, a development likely to further reduce inflation and therefore favorable to a more rapid loosening of the monetary stranglehold.
The German government has just revised its growth forecasts downwards, once again counting on a recession this year in the largest European economy (0.2% decline in gross domestic product) after a contraction of 0.3% in 2023.
A drop in rates would provide a breath of fresh air to households and businesses, likely to support consumer credit, the real estate market – currently sluggish – or investments.
The ECB sharply raised its rates in the wake of the post-Covid-19 recovery and then the Russian war in Ukraine, which caused energy prices to soar. This came at the cost, however, of a sharp slowdown in economic growth.
She will continue to monitor the impact of tensions in the Middle East, which tend to push up oil prices. The potential impact of the latest Chinese recovery plan could also stimulate energy demand and therefore affect prices.
Despite this uncertain context, Frederik Ducrozet, chief economist at Pictet, forecasts two rate cuts in 2024 and four more in the first half of 2025, which would bring the ECB’s reference rate to 2.0%, a level considered “neutral ” for the economy.
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