Is the budget gaseous? Both compressible and expandable, neither solid nor liquid? The debate on the budget will begin this evening in the Assembly, and deputies will ask themselves the question: should gas taxes be increased? If you’re looking for a solid answer, not a gassy one, you’re going to be disappointed. For several days, things have been very confusing, even within the government.
Last Friday, the Minister of Ecology, Agnès Pannier-Runacher announced an increase in gas taxation. It was to take place during the debate in Parliament, through amendments… The objective? Green our taxation, by taxing plane tickets or even gas more, therefore. The estimated amount on gas bills? 500 million euros more. It seems clear.
But the next day, Saturday, there was a reversal: the Minister of the Budget, Laurent Saint-Martin, declared that it was “not favorable” to this extent. And the following day, it was the government spokesperson, Maud Bregeon, who dotted the i’s: the Prime Minister decided, “there will be no increase in gas taxes”. Has the Minister of Ecology said her last word? No. Yesterday, in LiberationAgnès Pannier-Runacher returns to it: “The parliamentary discussion will be an opportunity to go further to green our taxation”. Confusion and contradictions, a few hours before the debate.
Amendments galore
Between Bercy and ecology, controversies are usual. But so close to the debate, it’s exceptional! Generally, discussions take place beforehand, in the corridors of ministries. There, disagreements come to light. For what ? Because the political situation is unprecedented. First, this budget was constructed in haste. The government has just been appointed. He had very little time. The discussions continue, all the way to the door of the Assembly.
Then, it is a reflection of the political situation. In government you have several lines. Everyone defends their own, without cohesion. And in Parliament, you will not find massive support for the government, including among those who are supposed to help it: the Macronists and the Republicans. On this budget, for the moment, deputies have tabled 1900 amendments. Of these 1900 amendments, the parties of the ruling alliance tabled more than 750, almost as many as the left. On this account, the government does not need an opposition. He already has his own, at home, in his camp.
Invoices under tension
Energy prices crystallize these tensions. It makes sense. After two years of inflation, and six years after the yellow vests, the subject remains very sensitive. The government wants to increase electricity taxation massively, with a promise: it will be painless for three quarters of consumers, for all those who subscribe to EDF’s regulated tariffs. On electricity, wholesale prices have fallen significantly. The government therefore believes that it can increase taxes: it will not be seen, and in the end, the bills will still be less steep than a few months ago.
But the two main parties that support the executive disagree. In the Assembly, the friends of Gabriel Attal and those of Laurent Wauquiez will block at least part of this increase. The government’s project, their government, they will fight it. We walk on our heads.
In the shadow of the climate
Behind these bickering, a substantive subject. Always the same, so essential, so urgent, so difficult: the climate, the tools to achieve our climate objectives. Taxation is one. But how to use it? I was talking about the Yellow Vests. In Parliament, everyone is thinking about it, in fear of a social explosion, while bills have soared in recent years.
Climate, social justice, tax justice… How to reconcile everything? For Agnès Pannier-Runacher, the Minister of Ecology, it is better to tax gas than electricity, which is much less carbon intensive with nuclear power. But the symbol of an increasing gas bill scares politicians. Which is fairest? The most effective? Can we set a course? And finally stick to it? It’s all there.
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