According to US intelligence estimates, the People’s Republic of China [RPC] could use force to bring Taiwan, which it considers to be a “rebel province”, back into its fold in 2027. Which would leave it a little more than two years to prepare.
For the moment, the People’s Liberation Army [APL] sends an ever-increasing number of ships and aircraft into the approaches to the island, which puts its armed forces under almost permanent pressure, while exhausting their potential. But we still do not know the modus operandi that Beijing will follow to seize Taiwan.
Three scenarios are mentioned. The first is based on hybrid operations, like those carried out by Russia to annex Crimea in 2014. The second is more traditional in nature since it envisages a vast amphibious operation launched following massive strikes on the Taiwanese military infrastructure. As for the last, it would consist of imposing a naval and air blockade of the island, which would be accompanied by the deployment of means of interdiction and denial of access. [A2/AD] in order to prevent American intervention. In recent years, the APL has acquired capabilities allowing it to follow these three operating methods, which could be combined.
That being said, the “United Sharp Swords 2024B” maneuvers that China has just launched in the vicinity of Taiwan on October 14 may give an indication of its future intentions.
The day before, the Taiwanese ministry said it was in a “state of alert” after reporting the presence of the aircraft carrier CNS Liaoning to the south of the island. It has “entered the waters near the Bashi Channel and is probably heading towards the western Pacific,” he explained.
However, the deployment of a Chinese carrier strike group in this sector is not new… However, it came after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te pledged to “resist the annexation” of the island or “to the encroachment of [sa] sovereignty”. This did not fail to provoke a reaction in Beijing, where these remarks were described as “provocations” likely to lead to a “disaster” for the Taiwanese.
Hence the concern generated by the “United Sharp Swords 2024B” maneuvers, both in Taipei and in Washington. Obviously, these aim to encircle Taiwan, as if it were imposing a blockade. Carried out under the authority of the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command, they mobilize air, naval and land forces. The Missile Force is also participating, as is the Chinese Coast Guard, which said it had initiated “law enforcement inspections” in Taiwanese waters.
These exercises are taking place “in areas to the north, south and east of the island of Taiwan,” explained Captain Li Xi, a spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command. They “focus on sea-air combat readiness patrols, blockade of ports and key areas as well as “assaulting maritime and land targets,” he added.
For Beijing, these maneuvers constitute a “serious warning” in the face of “separatist actions” by Taiwanese forces. “This is a legitimate and necessary operation to safeguard state sovereignty and national unity,” Captain Li argued.
For its part, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense denounced “irrational and provocative behavior” and assured that it had “deployed the adequate forces to react appropriately with the aim of protecting freedom and democracy, as well as to defend sovereignty”. from Taiwan. A priori, the fate of the Penghu Islands [ou Pescadores]Kinmen and Matsu seem to worry him the most since they have been placed on a state of “heightened alert”. These are in fact the most threatened to the extent that the PLA could take control of them in order to test Taipei’s reaction and Washington’s determination.
Precisely, and while the Taiwanese forces detected no less than 125 Chinese planes in the approaches to the island [jamais un tel « volume » n’avait été observé jusqu’alors]the United States has warned against any “provocation” by China towards Taiwan and asserted that the “United Sharp Swords” maneuvers are “unjustified” and represent a “risk of escalation”.
“We call on the PRC to act with restraint and avoid further action that could undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the broader region, which is essential for peace as well as regional prosperity and constitutes a subject of international concern,” said Matthew Miller, a spokesperson for American diplomacy.
Photo: Chinese Ministry of Defense
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