In week 40, the Atlas quotation of butter cube has still not been published due to lack of cases processed. “ In this context of very high prices, one of the players is missing. Either to buy, because prices are considered too high, or to sell due to lack of supply or for strategic reasons », Explained to us last week Marion Cassagnou, Economic Affairs Manager at Atla (French Dairy Processing Association). According to operators interviewed by the Markets, the current level of prix is not tolerable for users who prefer to limit production rather than assume losses, especially since the commercial negotiations which are beginning promise to be severe.
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A falling EEX quotation
Lack of price of butter on the French marketthe quote on the EEX futures market can nevertheless give an indicator of the direction of the market. However, for the second consecutive week, we read bearish corrections. Thus, contracts from November to February fell by 3 to 4%. The biggest drop was recorded in December (-8%).
Downward positions in the first quarter of 2025
On average at €6,950/tonne, EEX contract prices for the first quarter of 2025 were down 4.5% this week compared to the previous one. In the second quarter they stood at €6,800/ton. We are far from the €8,200/tonne of the last Atla quotation (week 38), but nevertheless, these price levels remain high. Note that the German quote on the Kempten butter and cheese exchange also fell in October, going from record highs of €8,500/ton in week 39 to €8,075/ton this week.
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European butter prices at record highs…
On the European spot market, prices in week 40 would be €7,780/tonne, up 2.1% compared to the average of the previous 4 weeks, according to Brussels. A historic level never reached. The difference with the American and New Zealand butter quotations exceeds $2,000/ton. The American quotation has also fallen by almost 10% in two weeks. US manufacturing was strong in August (+15%).
…but a falling spot milk price
We can nevertheless note the stabilization then the erosion of the spot price of milk in Italy, Germany and the Netherlands, reflecting the seasonal increase in collection, despite the cases of FCO which have multiplied.
The consumer not yet put to the test
If the tensions on supply seem to be easing slightly, with a lack of milk fat still on the horizon, the major unknown remains how demand will hold up. In fact, the consumer has not yet been confronted with this surge in prices, whether in terms of packs or the prices of products using butter (pastries, biscuits, pure butter pasta, etc.). Wrenched by two years of inflation already, will he still remain willing to pay?
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