Israel maintains doubt over the form and scale of its reprisals in Iran – rts.ch

“Iran made a big mistake and they will pay for it. They don’t understand Israel’s determination to retaliate against its enemies, but they will understand. We will respect the rule we have established: whoever attacks us, we will attack them “. These words, spoken by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of a meeting of his cabinet on Tuesday October 1, the day of the Iranian attack, leave no doubt: retaliation by the Jewish state is inevitable.

>> Find event tracking: UNIFIL accuses the Israeli army of targeting its headquarters in southern Lebanon, injuring two peacekeepers

Nine days later, however, no concrete action has yet been taken by Israel. In Tehran as within the international community, uncertainty therefore remains as to Tel Aviv’s real intentions. For experts, Israel has several military options to attack the Islamic Republic of Iran. Back on some of them, from the least to the most plausible.

Strikes on nuclear infrastructure

For many years now, Tehran’s nuclear program has caused great concern in the West. A concern which is even increased tenfold in Israel, the country considering the possible acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran as an existential threat.

In recent years, Israel has therefore intensified its efforts to delay Iran’s nuclear program through a series of covert operations. Notable actions include cyberattacks, such as the famous Stuxnet virus, which seriously damaged Iranian centrifuges in 2010. At the same time, sabotage has targeted nuclear facilities, including the Natanz explosion in 2020. Israel has also been accused targeted assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, the most notable of which was the elimination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020. Finally, the country exerted diplomatic pressure to convince world powers to maintain sanctions against Iran.

But directly hitting Iranian nuclear facilities, including uranium production and enrichment plants or research reactors, seems unlikely at this stage. First of all, the majority of nuclear installations are buried deep underground, often several tens of meters under the rock.

To destroy them or at least significantly damage them requires extremely capable types of bombs. And the most effective of them are American, with 13-ton munitions capable of striking very deeply. However, Washington has so far refused to provide them to Tel Aviv.

Asked by the press shortly after the strikes on Israel to know whether he would support attacks on the Iranian nuclear sector, Joe Biden was very clear. “The answer is no (…) the Israelis have the right to retaliate, but they must do so in a proportionate manner,” replied the tenant of the White House.

Without support from its main ally, it therefore remains unlikely that the Jewish state will decide to attack Iranian nuclear power. A low probability which is however not zero. Interviewed Wednesday by FranceinfoKobi Michael, researcher at the National Security Institute at Tel Aviv University, downplays the need for collaboration with the United States. “Israel has the capacity to strike and not only with American means (…) the country has prepared surprises which could be more effective and destructive than what American means allow,” he assures.

Speaker on CNNMalcom Davis, senior researcher at the Australian Strategic Institute, adds that Benjamin Netanyahu Benjamin would face strong pressure within his cabinet to attack these nuclear facilities.

Targeting oil and gas infrastructure

A second possible scenario is that Israel decides to strike Iranian oil and gas infrastructure. These installations, mainly located in the west of the country, near the borders with Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, play a crucial role at a time when the Iranian economy is already very fragile.

With a production of nearly 3 million barrels of oil per day, Iran, already heavily under international sanctions, only accounts for a little less than 3% of global supply. But for Tehran, oil remains the most exported product and represents, according to estimates, between 15% and 20% of its GDP. A series of targeted attacks on these infrastructures could therefore prove extremely damaging for Iran.

But such action could also have broader consequences for the economy. And this is undoubtedly what should slow Israel down in this scenario. A possible attack could indeed provoke retaliation from Tehran, prompting the country to strike refineries in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. An escalation which could also compromise maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, an essential route for the transit of tankers, which represents almost a third of world oil production.

Impeding the production and export of Iranian oil could also be very poorly received in Beijing, which is by far the Islamic Republic’s main customer.

>> Reread chapter II of the large format on China and the Middle East, which notably discusses energy relations between Tehran and Beijing. : In the Middle East, China’s entry through the front door?

The consequences of such a situation would therefore be serious. A disruption in oil supplies could trigger an energy shock, leading to higher prices for fuel, gasoline and other by-products like plastics and fertilizers. An upheaval that could plunge many economies into a recessionary spiral, particularly in the most vulnerable countries dependent on oil imports.

It should also be noted that without being as opposed as in the case of nuclear power, US President Joe Biden said on Friday that it was probably not the right solution. “If I were in Israel’s place, I would think about alternatives other than strikes on the oil fields,” explained the Democrat.

Military targets

Without being able to be ruled out, these first two scenarios are currently less probable than that of an operation targeting military targets in Iran.

Cited in the New York Timesseveral American officials who requested anonymity believe that the Israelis should first concentrate on military bases and perhaps on Iranian intelligence sites. According to them, the nuclear infrastructure should only become a target later, if the Iranians were to counterattack again.

Israeli officials, for their part, clarified to the American site Axios that retaliation should be significant and include a combination of airstrikes on military targets in Iran, as well as covert attacks like the one that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July 2024 in Tehran.

A version which seems partly supported by the video published Wednesday by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, around the time that Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by telephone with Joe Biden for the first time in the space of two months. The Israeli attack will be “lethal, precise and particularly surprising”, explains the minister, adding that Iran “will not understand what happened to it, nor how”.

Experts therefore agree that Israel should consider graduated retaliation, aware of the risk of unwanted escalation. However, within circles close to Benjamin Netanyahu, some believe that the current situation could represent a unique opportunity to significantly hamper Iran’s nuclear program.

American pressure on Israel for greater restraint in Gaza or even in Lebanon having so far not worked at all, the question also arises as to whether Washington will have succeeded in convincing Tel Aviv not to strike too hard. ‘Iran.

Officially, the final decision concerning the choice and extent of reprisals has not yet been made. According to CNNIsrael’s security cabinet is due to meet Thursday evening for a vote on the response to the Iranian strikes.

Tristan Duke