After five unbeaten matches, including two victories in Europe and a resounding win in the Clasico, David Hubert has certainly made his mark. However, statistics tell a different story.
Data can sometimes contradict appearances, and this is the case here. Most observers of Anderlecht’s recent matches will agree: Anderlecht has been playing better since David Hubert took charge, with a more offensive style and a more dangerous team.
The reality is that the Mauves were taking more risks under Brian Riemer. In the last five matches, the Danish coach saw his team hit the target 79 times, creating an equivalent of 7 expected goals. In the same time frame, the Mauves under Hubert attempted 59 shots, with 5.3 expected goals. Even possession statistics favor the Dane, with his team posting 62% compared to 57% under Riemer.
Thus, the difference lies in effectiveness in the opponent’s penalty area. In comparison to expected goals, Hubert is overperforming by +2.7 goals, while Riemer had a positive difference of 3 expected goals over actual goals scored.
Hubert has improved Anderlecht through small adjustments that, when combined, have resulted in significant change: players have performed better under him than under his predecessor. Based on our player ratings awarded after each match, the conclusion is clear, with an average rating boost of 0.7 points out of 10.
Even more striking is that this evolution is particularly evident in key players that the Anderlecht public has high hopes for. Starting with Yari Verschaeren, who has received an average rating 1.5 points higher under Hubert than under Riemer. The number 10 had a difficult start to the season, partly due to psychological factors. Anderlecht tried to bring in a competitor perceived as superior on paper (Christian Eriksen), which imposed enormous pressure on him.
Hubert has primarily restored his confidence. The playmaker role was assigned to another player, Mario Stroeykens, allowing Verschaeren to showcase his abilities in a more complete and industrious role, evident in his performance against Real Sociedad where he displayed great composure on the ball.
Mario Stroeykens has become a symbol of Sporting’s improvement under Hubert, although his rating only increased by 0.5 points. This can be understood as a continuation of his upward trend that began towards the end of Riemer’s tenure. The Belgian had been impressive as an attacking substitute against Westerlo and was one of the few Mauves to keep his head above water against Genk. Hubert has pushed his limits further by positioning him behind the striker and entrusting him with game responsibilities, sensing he was the in-form player in the squad.
The midfield has been the primary focus of the interim coach, where notable improvements have been observed. Mats Rits is certainly the player who excites Lotto Park the least. He recovers balls and distributes them. Under Brian Riemer, he was restricted to such basic duties that it was easy to forget he possessed good technical skills. He is now participating more in the play and daring to venture near the opponent’s penalty area. The same analysis applies to Théo Leoni, whose performance clearly improved under David Hubert, whereas Brian Riemer had completely overlooked him at the start of the season.
Tristan Degreef, on the other hand, doesn’t fit into this comparison for a clear reason: the former coach did not select him and he was not rated before Hubert’s arrival. His average rating since is impressive: 6.8.
And what about the Danes? There were concerns that they might suffer a dip in form following the departure of their compatriot, but the opposite has occurred. Dolberg is more involved and has found the back of the net again (+0.6 points). Dreyer has dropped down the pecking order but delivered his best match of the season under Hubert against Real Sociedad.
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