By Angel Ferrero
The forecasts finally came true and the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) clearly won the legislative elections on Sunday September 29, 2024, becoming the leading force in the country with 28.85% of the votes, an increase of more than 12 points compared to the last elections.
With these results, the FPÖ managed for the first time in its history to overtake the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), which obtained 26.27%, a significant drop of 11 percentage points in the polls. Although the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) failed to improve its results – 21.14% – it also did not record significant losses, but the FPÖ’s progress relegates it to an uncomfortable third place It is followed by the liberal party NEOS with 9.14% (+1.1) and the Greens with 8.24% (-5.6). Neither the Austrian Communist Party (KPÖ: 2.3%) nor the satirical Beer Party (BIER: 2%) managed to cross the necessary threshold to enter parliament and the question remains whether they will. would have done if the other had withdrawn, as well as the extent to which the SPÖ capitalized on the useful vote of the left [1]. [Le taux de participation fut de 77,3%, donc plus élevé qu’en 2019 : 75,6% ; voir le graphique ci-dessous ayant trait à la répartition des sièges]
Distribution of the 183 seats in Parliament
The participation rate was 77.3%, therefore higher than in 2019: 75.6%.
The results of these elections are unprecedented and Austria’s political future is uncertain. Some international voices have already expressed their concern: Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani of Forza Italia says: “I think Austria needs a coalition government that excludes the FPÖ, political fights are always won in the center so that far left and far right parties cannot cause damage. The president of the Israelitische Kultusgemeinde Wien and Ariel Muzicant and the European Jewish Congress, told the Italian daily The PressSeptember 30: “Kickl calls himself Göbbels’ slogans, I will write to the President [Alexander Van der Bellen, élu au suffrage universel en janvier 2017] let him stand in his way [pour un rôle gouvernemental]»
The fact that the “blues” – the name given to the far right in Austria – won these elections does not automatically mean that they will govern. This Monday, September 30, the daily The standard recalled that in 2019, it took 100 days to form an executive. If the FPÖ has already prepared its negotiating team and does not want to wait too long to sit down at the negotiating table, several obstacles stand in its way at Ballhausplatz 2, the seat of the Austrian Federal Chancellery. The president of the country, Alexander van der Bellen, could for example, in the exercise of his functions, not entrust Herbert Kickl, the candidate of the FPÖ, with the task of forming a government by appealing to the democratic pillars of the constitution of the Second Republic, although this eventuality seems unlikely.
The decisive conservatives
If the FPÖ makes the headlines, it is the ÖVP which holds the key to government. Despite its sharp decline – the Austrian People’s Party benefited neither from the fall in inflation in August, nor from the supposed stability that voters seek after natural disasters such as the recent floods in Central Europe, nor from its balance foreign policy with Russia on the basis of the country’s historic neutrality – the 52 conservative deputies will be decisive for the formation of an executive.
The ÖVP’s first option would be to enter a coalition government with the FPÖ as a minority partner. This option has its supporters and detractors within the party. Among the first – including, according to interviews given a few weeks ago, Chancellor Karl Nehammer himself (ÖVP) – there are those who opt for something more Machiavellian: a cordon santé not against the FPÖ, but against Herbert Kickl, in the hope of precipitating an internal crisis in the party which would allow him, at least, to gain oxygen even if he governs with them and thus regain lost ground. In this political constellation, the ÖVP would surely use its 52 seats in the negotiations to claim key portfolios such as Finance, Interior and Justice that would allow it to present itself to the electorate as the reliable coalition partner.
The second option, a grand coalition with the Social Democrats being excluded – the imprint that the left-wing president of the party [depuis juin 2023]Andreas Babler, said the party is considered “unstable” by a large part of public opinion – consists of the ÖVP leading a tripartite government with other parties, the liberals being the “hinge party”, according to the German model.
The loss of votes in industrial constituencies is particularly worrying for the Social Democrats. The SPÖ leadership has expressed its willingness to begin a round of negotiations with other parties, and although Michael Ludwig, mayor of Vienna and one of the party’s heavyweights, told the media that a debate on the names within the party was not envisaged, Babler’s resignation could well be the price to pay for signing a coalition with the conservatives if he ends up being seen as the main obstacle to the formation of this coalition. As Barbara Tóth notes in The butterfly“the electoral campaign is over and the power struggles are beginning.”
While awaiting discussions between the parties, civil society has already mobilized and a first demonstration has already been called for Thursday October 3 in front of Parliament, demanding that political parties not enter into pacts with the FPÖ.
The FPÖ conquers hegemony
Even if the FPÖ remains outside the government, we must not forget that it has gained something even more important: political hegemony. As the first parliamentary force, it could follow the example of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and, from there, work to undermine the executive – inevitably presented as a “coalition of losers” – then , at a more favorable time, attack the Federal Chancellery. In the meantime, and especially through the media appearances of its elected officials and social media, the FPÖ is normalizing its discourse with public opinion.
The confirmation at the polls of what the polls have shown in recent months and which reveals that, contrary to what was happening a few years ago, fewer and fewer voters do not hesitate to openly express their sympathy for the FPÖ, is an indication of how far the Austrian far right has come in this area. Questioned by the press agency WHAT On the election results, playwright and 2004 Nobel Prize winner Elfriede Jelinek – a former critic of the FPÖ and one of the best-known voices against the party – responded laconically: “Nothing, everything has been said, except that the disasters announced occur”.
The FPÖ therefore has reason to rejoice at the results of these elections, because even without governing, it will be able to influence the agenda of the next government. Kickl could, from his seat as a deputy, become one of the strong men of the far right in Central Europe. The leading figure of this trend, Viktor Orbán, has already been in power in Hungary for years, and during the recent regional elections in the Czech Republic – which took place at the same time as the senatorial elections – the party of Andrej Babiš, ANO was the most voted party. If these results are confirmed, Andrej Babiš would dethrone Petr Fiala as prime minister during the legislative elections scheduled for October 2025, if they are not anticipated. Babiš is one of the founders, with Kickl and Orbán, of the “Patriots for Europe”, the third force in the European Parliament, including Vox [dans l’Etat espagnol] is also a member.
None of the scenarios augurs “stability” and all confirm a shift to the right in Europe. (Article published on the website of Without PermissionSeptember 30, 2024; translation-editing writing Against)
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[1] A Vienna, the capital, the SPÖ obtains 29.8% of the vote, the FPÖ 21.2%, the ÖVP 17.6%, Grüne (The Greens): 12%; NEOS 11.1%, KPÖ, 3.8%. The participation rate in this constituency was 67.4%. The quorum is at 4%.
In the city of Grazthe third in the country, the SPÖ obtains 21.7% of the vote, the ÖVP, 21.3%, the FPÖ 19.9%, 17.6%, Grüne 15.5%, NEOS 12.1%; KPÖ, 6%. The participation rate: 73.3%.
A Innsbruckthe second in the country, the SPÖ obtains 23% of the vote, the ÖVP, 20.81%, the FPÖ 22.29, 17.6%, Grüne 14.68%, NEOS 11.56%, KPÖ 3.84 %. The participation rate: 69.81%. (Ed.)
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