In the final stretch before D-Day, specialists admit their dismay: the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the famine in Sudan and the climatic peril paint a sinister picture which hardly lends itself to conjectures on a price of the peace.
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Of the candidates, we only know the number: 286 this year, or 197 individuals and 89 organizations. Their identity is kept secret for 50 years, unless their sponsors choose to reveal the name of their foal.
A collective of peace NGOs, the Norwegian Peace Council has made the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) its favorite amid the devastating conflict between Israel and Hamas, triggered by attacks on the ground. Israeli by the Islamist movement on October 7, 2023, threatens to set the region ablaze.
A peace prize for UNRWA would be strong recognition of their work in the face of difficult political and economic situations.
estimates the collective.
UNRWA helps millions of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and neighboring countries, but such a distinction would not fail to anger the Israeli authorities who accuse it of collusion with Hamas.
The UN agency could possibly be rewarded jointly with its head, the Swiss-Italian Philippe Lazzarini.
Preserve the world order
Another way for the Nobel committee to approach the Middle East but also the Russian offensive in Ukraine would be to distinguish the International Court of Justice (ICJ) responsible for resolving disputes between States through legal means rather than on the fields of battle.
The highest court of the UN, this court based in The Hague notably ordered Russia to suspend its invasion of Ukraine and Israel to suspend its military operations in Rafah.
Orders that have had no effect on the ground but which increase the pressure on these countries with regard to international law.
The ICJ has made important contributions
notes Henrik Urdal, director of the Oslo Peace Research Institute (Prio).
Of course, it is not a court which has the power or a structure to impose its decisions, but it relies on the international community to ensure the follow-up of its judgments.
he said.
Nobel specialist, historian Asle Sveen is leaning towards a prize for the Secretary General of the United Nations, the Portuguese Antonio Guterres, possibly with one of the institutions dependent on the UN.
The UN needs all the support and attention the organization can get to survive in the face of forces that advocate might make law
emphasizes M. Sveen.
A peace prize for Antonio Guterres would give him a unique opportunity […] to warn of the dangers of marginalizing the UN and the world order
he argues.
To ignore?
Among the other Nobel Prize winners are the International Criminal Court (ICC), the campaign against killer robots, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), the Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms initiative and even Afghan activist Mahbouba Seraj.
According to Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), a strong signal from the Nobel committee, in the current context, would be not to award the prize.
Maybe it’s time to say: yes, many people are working very hard, but to no avail and more people and world leaders need to wake up and realize that we are in an extremely dangerous situation.
he said.
But this would be experienced in Oslo as a terrible statement of failure, which should therefore be avoided.
I am convinced that there will once again be a worthy candidate for the peace prize this year
assured the secretary of the Nobel committee, Olav Njølstad.
The answer will fall within the walls of the Nobel Institute in Oslo on Friday at 11 a.m.
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