Polymarket vs survey. The presidential campaign in the United States has definitively switched to a parallel version, enhanced with cryptocurrencies. As proof, the multiple initiatives launched by the candidate Donald Trumpto the point of creating an improbable family DeFi project. But perhaps the most surprising change of direction comes from the Democratic camp, so far deemed hostile to these digital assets. Indeed, candidate Kamala Harris seems determined to be more open in the area. Of the campaign arrangements which require going through the test of facts on both camps. Meanwhile, Donald Trump regains the advantage over Polymarket, but not in the official polls. Elon Musk in his opinion on the matter…
Kamala Harris leads official polls
If we step aside for a few moments from partisan quarrels, the addition of the crypto subject in the US presidential campaign has something historical about it. Even more so if we consider that the two main camps in the race have carried out an unprecedented work of seduction, even if they have clearly not not the same starting point.
With on one side the candidate Donald Trumpwhose electoral campaign ends up being confused with the promotion of personal and family crypto projects. Like for example the DeFi protocol World Liberty Financial who has recently opened the white list associated with its future WLFI token sale.
And on the other the Democrat Kamala Harriswhose ambition is apparently to get out of traces anti-crypto of his predecessor Joe Biden. The whole point is to know to what extent this displayed relaxation will truly be favorable to the cryptocurrency sectortaking into account the highly repressive liabilities accumulated.
A context within which official polls give for the moment a slight advantage to Kamala Harris. In fact, it records voting intentions of up to 49 % on average. But Donald Trump remains very close, with approximately 47 %. A result very different from that displayed on the platform Polymarket !
Donald Trump remains the winner on Polymarket
THE crypto betting platforms are they intended to become reliable and official sources of polls ? A question to which the American CFTC has already provided some answers by imposing restrictions on the version Kalshiwhich has the misfortune of being regulated.
But its competitor Polymarket does not suffer (yet?) from these kinds of regulatory issues. This is why it displays record activityin direct relation to the elections which animate the news of the United States.
And in the field, the results it displays are very different of those put forward by official polling structures. Indeed, in the “Winner of the 2024 presidential election” category on Polymarket Donald Trump has just regained the advantagewith a score of 50,8 %
The opportunity for the pro-Trump billionaire Elon Musk to qualify Polymarket’s surveys as “ more precise » than their official versions. With a justification provided which will be very precisely the one used by his detractors to assert the opposite.
“Trump now leads Kamala by 3% in the betting market. More accurate than polls, because money is at stake.”
Elon Musk
Is crypto betting more accurate than official polls ? A question that could merit being the subject of a new bet on the platform Polymarket. This is to enable it to set ever more new records. And the recent announced launch of a cryptocurrency could well win all the votes.
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