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Why a surge in oil prices is expected

The price of oil is skyrocketing, and yet the United States seems to be keeping its cool. For what ? The answer lies in a procurement strategy that has been carefully orchestrated for months.

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It all started a few months ago, long before tensions in the Middle East made headlines. The United States, like a good strategist, began to do its oil shopping.

Last September, they got their hands on no less than 4 million barrels, courtesy of the giants Exxon Mobil, Shell and Macquarie. All for the modest sum of $411 million.

The SPR: the anti-crisis shield made in the USA

But what is this famous SPR that everyone is talking about? These are the Americans’ strategic reserves, immense salt caverns, buried under Louisiana and Texas, filled to the brim with crude oil. This is what the world’s largest emergency oil reserve looks like.

Created in 1975 after the oil crisis of 1973, this reserve is the United States’ wild card in the face of crises.

His goal? Protect the American economy from the upheavals of the global oil market. Whether it’s a Gulf War, Hurricane Katrina or a global pandemic, the RPD is there to cushion the blow. And believe me, it has already proven itself!

Look, in 2022, while the war in Ukraine caused prices at the pump to soar, President Joe Biden did not hesitate to draw 180 million barrels from this reserve. A historic record which helped to calm things down… temporarily.

According to data from the US Department of Energy, the reserve currently contains 375 million barrels of oil. It contained around 600 million barrels at the start of 2022.

But back to our barrels. The current oil market is playing a dangerous game. On the one hand, you have OPEC+ (the club of oil-producing countries and other allies) which is juggling its production to maintain prices. On the other hand, you have countries like the United States that are trying to stabilize the market with their reserves.

And in the middle of all this? Geopolitical tensions which threaten to collapse the entire pyramid. Iran, for example, produces around 3.2 million barrels per day. This is the current fear that this production will be compromised.

Questioned on the subject by journalists at the White House, American President Joe Biden declared Thursday October 3 to be « discussion » with Israel on the advisability of strikes against Tehran’s energy infrastructure. The next day, he clarified that the Jewish state had, in fact, not yet decided on a response. And added: “If I were in their place, I would think of other solutions than hitting oil fields. ».

For its part, OPEC+ claims to have the strength to compensate for a possible loss of Iranian production. But be careful, if other Gulf countries enter the crisis, things could become really complicated.

Europe in turmoil

And in Europe, in all this? The price of Brent, our benchmark oil in Europe, has already risen to close to $78 per barrel. Result ? Rising energy costs and inflation that risks making people cringe.

Stock market pros are getting excited about a rather explosive scenario: what if Israel and Iran (or its allies) started playing havoc with oil installations in the Middle East? We are still talking about the region which provides us with a third of the world’s oil.

These speculators are betting big on the idea that this could seriously seize up the export machine. Result ? Barrel prices that would soar.

If oil is causing us misery, this is perhaps the perfect opportunity to push our energy transition even further. After all, investments in clean energy have already exceeded those in fossil fuels.


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