one year later, what future for the hundred hostages still held in Gaza?

How many are left? Are they still alive? And in what state of health? One year to the day after their kidnapping by Hamas terrorists, on October 7, 2023, the hostages held in the hell of the Gaza Strip are struggling to see the end of their sordid tunnel. To date, there are still 101 of them, according to the Israeli army, to be held in captivity in the Palestinian enclave. But according to Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of the Jewish state, only 50 of them are still alive while the IDF has reported, until now, 64 prisoners still alive.

In recent weeks, the explosion of Hezbollah pagers followed by the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Lebanese terrorist movement, has shifted the epicenter of the conflict to northern Israel and its border with Lebanon. A clash with Iran’s armed wing in the region which inevitably leads to an escalation with Tehran.

Arbitrations to be made

The Mullahs’ regime was quick to react by raining 200 ballistic missiles on the Hebrew state last Tuesday, forcing the population to take refuge in shelters. So many events which seem to further darken the future of the hostages held in the south, in Gaza. At a press conference in London, families of British hostages deplored the “abject failure of international diplomacy” in reaching an agreement and feared that the fight against Hezbollah would “distract attention from what is most important, namely the release of the hostages.” A month ago, however, American President Joe Biden assured that negotiators were “very close” to announcing an agreement for a release.

Unfortunately, according to geopolitical scientist Gérard Vespierre, Israel must now make “painful” arbitrations between the hostages held in Gaza – around a hundred – and the 70,000 displaced from northern Israel, forced to leave their homes to avoid the almost daily shootings of the Hezbollah since the outbreak of war in the Palestinian enclave. “The two choices are opposed, we cannot do ‘at the same time'”, underlines the researcher associated with FEMO (Middle East Studies Foundation).

“The door is not closed”

Benjamin Netanyahu estimated that the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, could on the contrary “advance” the return of the hostages, to the extent that such a blow to the Shiite movement would force Hamas to soften its position. Unconvinced, Gérard Vespierre considers it unlikely that the Palestinian terrorist movement will agree to negotiate an agreement with the Hebrew state, at a time when the latter is intensifying the battle with Iran, long-time financial support of Hamas.

If the return to freedom of these hostages in the short term is becoming more and more distant, General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the magazine Défense nationale, still wants to believe that “the door is not closed”. “The Jewish New Year as well as the commemoration of October 7 will bring the question of the hostages back to the forefront, because the families will express themselves. And the government will have to respond something,” continues the soldier. And Gérard Vespierre concludes: “The current situation with Hezbollah will not last very long, because the 70,000 displaced Israelis must be able to return home. I would say until the end of the year maximum. And at that moment – there, in a second step, we will be able to take an interest again in the question of the hostages in Gaza.”