The price of electricity was due to fall in February… It could increase due to a tax increase

Will our electricity bills increase again on February 1, 2025? Last June, the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire announced a reduction of “10 to 15%” for “all French people”. Yes, but here it is: Bruno Le Maire is no longer a minister and the new Prime Minister Michel Barnier assures that a “financial crisis” threatens France.

Nothing is official yet but, according to The Parisianan increase in the TICFE (domestic final consumption tax on electricity) would be in the pipeline. Before the war in Ukraine, this tax amounted to €32.44 per megawatt hour. When electricity prices soared in 2022 due to the war in Ukraine but also the unavailability of several nuclear reactors in France, the government lowered the tax to €0.5/MWh. This drastic reduction made it possible to put in place the energy shield.

The tax is higher today. It stands at €22.50/MWh, which allowed the State to collect 6 billion euros. It would now be a question of reducing the tax to its initial level of €32.44/MWh on February 1, 2025 while at the same time prices on the electricity markets are falling. “We are indeed thinking about a mechanism which would go above the increase planned as part of the end of the tariff shield”, indicates a participant in the file at Parisian.

Of the 30 million households subscribing to electricity, 18 million have a regulated tariff. The additional increase in the TICFE should not lead to an increase in the bill for these subscribers, but the drop of at least 10% in February would be called into question. It would rather be around – 9%, or a reduction of €110 per year on average. For the 12 million subscribers on a market offer, the bill should increase. By how much? It’s too early to know. Despite the price shield, electricity prices have already jumped by 45% in 2 years in France.