Soft wheat prices rose between September 25 and October 2 on Euronext and the French physical market, given climate fears in certain global production areas. Add to this the growing geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, which have caused oil prices to soar.
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Weather-wise, the main concern concerns the situation in Russia. The water deficit persists, resulting in sowing work which accentuates the delay. And there should be little rain over the next few days. Prices from Russian ports are increasing. In Western Europe, precipitation continues in France and Germany, slowing down sowing work. However, some bearish elements should be noted. European exports remain fairly amorphous. Then, the representative of Moroccan traders indicated that his country would import more Russian wheat than French wheat during the 2024-2025 campaign. Finally, production in the United States looks good. On the French physical market, port demand is still discreet, justifying the stabilization of premiums. Eastern European origins, especially those emanating from Russia, remain much more attractive.
On the domestic market, the mill continues to close some deals. The recent price increase makes the sellers stand out somewhat. The domestic market is considered more liquid. Storage organizations have a better understanding of the qualities available to them. However, the high engagement rate of sellers tempers exchanges. Animal nutrition also makes purchases. Note that the fodder premium in the north-eastern quarter of France is tending to decline, given the abundance of supply.
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River freight costs falling
In the Seine basin, river freight costs fell between September 25 and October 2, with boatmen desperately looking for transport to carry out. But the storage organizations take time to bring the goods up to standard, the qualitative problems being numerous: specific weight, insects, ergot, mycotoxins… The lack of trucks, monopolized by the sugar beet harvest, complicates the situation, just like the analyzes at unloading in port silos which are increasing. On the international loading side, things are still completely calm. Remember that Sénalia, the Rouen port terminal, has placed its Céréales export team on technical unemployment since September 30. On the Rhine and the Moselle, freight costs have not changed.
Kevin Cler and Karine Floquet
But
Progression of values
Corn prices gained ground between September 25 and October 2 on Euronext and the CBOT, notably due to the publication of the USDA quarterly report, which estimated stocks in the United States lower than market expectations. . In fact, plots lack water in the country. In France, the rains continue to slow down harvest work. In terms of activity, Italian interest is reported, triggering some transactions. Business to Spain has also been reported. The French FABs also conclude some purchases, particularly during the lean period, but without enthusiasm.
Feed barley
FABs back to purchasing?
Feed barley prices gained ground from one edition to the next, following soft wheat. But port premiums remain approximately the same, again due to market sluggishness. Internally, the merchandise regains some competitiveness in formulation, generating some transactions. Note that the USDA annual report on coarse grains estimates a clear drop in US production, by almost a quarter between 2023 and 2024.
Malting barley
Increase in price
The prices of malting barley on the French physical market increased between September 25 and October 2, more markedly in the 2025 harvest than in the 2024 harvest. The market is rather calm.
Durum wheat
Demand is making a comeback
Durum wheat prices change little from one week to the next, but the underlying trend would be somewhat upward. Indeed, buying interest would return. If sellers are sometimes reluctant to position themselves, given the various qualities, exchanges are reported. Prices from the South-East are reported to be higher than those displayed, around €300/t. The Italian semolina industry would position itself on the near side, just like the Spanish industry which would also cover the distant side. The USDA annual report on coarse grains indicates a clear increase in US production between 2023 and 2024.
Coarse grains
Oat prices are unchanged between September 25 and October 2. Black oats are currently more expensive than white, although theory would be the opposite. In fact, the white one is supposed to go into human food, while the black one must go into animal food. But the supply is so abundant in white oats and so rare in black that the situation is reversed: black oats are more expensive than white.
The editorial staff
To watch
Soft wheat
- Prices from Russia, which seem to be firming up.
- Maintaining water deficit in Russia.
- Will the method of calculating Russian export taxes change?
- New estimates of Ukrainian collection.
- Rains in France which slow down sowing.
Orgy
- Still sluggish pace of French exports.
- The merchandise is regaining competitiveness in formulation, will domestic demand become more dynamic?
- Rains in France, affecting seedlings.
But
- Precipitation in France, what impact on the products harvested?
- Progress of sowing in Brazil.
- Progress of the harvest in the United States.
Kevin Cler
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