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Oil advances on Middle East conflict, but supply outlook limits gains

Oil prices rose in the early hours of Asian trading Friday, holding on to their strong weekly gains, as investors weigh the Middle East conflict and potential disruption to crude flows against an amply supplied global market.

Brent oil futures were up 9 cents, or 0.12%, at $77.71 a barrel by 0010 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 8 cents, or 0.11 percent, at $73.79 a barrel.

Both benchmarks were on track for weekly gains of around 8%.

President Joe Biden said Thursday that the United States is considering striking Iranian oil facilities in retaliation for Tehran’s missile attack on Israel. These comments contributed to a 5% rise in oil prices.

The market has started to price in the likelihood of supply disruptions in the Middle East, which accounts for about a third of global supply, said Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ.

“The move was exacerbated by bearish investors exiting their bets on falling prices. This move could continue if investors start taking bullish positions on oil,” Hynes said.

However, supply concerns have been tempered by OPEC’s excess production capacity and the fact that global crude supplies have not yet been disrupted by unrest in the Middle East.

The Libyan government based in the east of the country and the National Oil Corp. based in Tripoli announced Thursday the reopening of all oil fields and export terminals after resolving a dispute over the leadership of the central bank, ending a crisis that had sharply reduced oil production.

Both Iran and Libya are members of OPEC. Iran, which is under U.S. sanctions, produced about 4 million barrels per day of fuel in 2023, while Libya produced about 1.3 million bpd last year, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.

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