Bitcoin, a compass of the global situation? After a nice rise in Bitcoin to $66,000helped by the reduction in key rates of the US Federal Reserve, events have turned against cryptocurrencies. The recent rain of Iranian missiles that fell against Israel has worry investors in the young asset class, perceived as “ risky assets ”, just like stocks. For banking experts Standard Charteredthe BTC price will be significantly influenced by geopolitical events future.
A BTC first at less than 60,000 dollars, before an explosion to 80,000 (or even 125,000) dollars?
If the analysts of Standard Chartered believe that the change in monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (with the reduction in its key rates) will contribute to propel Bitcoin to $125,000this path to the Moon may not be in a straight line.
In a recent analysis of Geoff Kendrickglobal head of digital assets research for Standard Chartered, a very contrasting behavior investors is observed.
On the one hand, tensions Middle East could bring back BTC below $60,000. But on the other hand these same tensions would give more chance to Donald Trump to win thepresidential election US to come, and some speculators see it as a possible good deal to bet on buying BTC at $80,000 with options (meaning it would be worth more when exercising these options).
For Standard Chartered, it’s all about ‘circularity’ in the geopolitics affecting Bitcoin
Indeed, Geoff Kendrick points out that purchase options of BTC for a maturity date of December 27 2024 jumped on the market place He will tear it down. These are options on 1 300 bitcoins at a strike price of 80 000 dollars which arose “these last two days “, that is, since Iran’s missile attack on Israel.
“Middle East concerns appear destined to push Bitcoin back below $60,000 before this weekend, but positions like the $80,000 call options highlighted here, and circularity versus probabilities of Trump [de gagner les élections] suggest the dip should be bought. (…) This circularity is interesting for Bitcoin, (…) because if geopolitical concerns can lower prices [à court terme]these same concerns seem to increase Donald Trump’s chances [de redevenir président des USA]which could improve Bitcoin’s post-election prices. »
Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research for Standard Chartered
According to the Standard Chartered expert, it could therefore be in summary that we do not have a month of October “Uptober” style this year, but the sharp rise in Bitcoin prices is coming after the US election of November 5. So, will we see a BTC at more than 80,000 dollars by the end of 2024? The bets are already open for some speculators bullish.
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