Due to the situation in the Middle East, with Iran’s attack on Israel in particular, oil prices increased by 6% this Wednesday morning. But in the longer term, analysts do not foresee an outbreak.
After Iran’s attack on Israel, should we fear a surge in oil prices? After the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, prices jumped by 5% but fell back within a few days, because what was feared at the time had not happened: entry into the Iran conflict.
But this is the scenario that materialized Monday evening. Wednesday morning, prices rose 6% and it is likely that the excitement will last more than a few days on the oil market…
Because Iran is an important player in the global oil market. It is first of all the ninth world producer of crude oil, with 4% of world production, approximately 4 million barrels per day, including 2 million exported, but the third largest reserves in the world.
The first fear is that Israel will destroy part of Iranian production capacities. The second fear is that the United States will reinstate sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The third fear is attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea or even the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes.
Business Cyprus: Israel/Iran, what consequences for oil? – 03/10
Oil no more expensive in six months
The good news is that the world today is in a situation of oil glut rather than shortage. And this should continue next year, since analysts are revising their production forecasts upwards and their demand forecasts downwards.
Analyst consensus: $65 in spring 2025, compared to $75 today. Even with Iranian uncertainty, oil will not be more expensive in six months than it is today.
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