Since the explosions which hit the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in September 2022, Russia has increased its accusations against the West, pointing the finger in particular at the United States and the United Kingdom, while calling for a transparent investigation. These two pipelines, which carried Russian gas to Germany via the Baltic Sea, were at the heart of Russia’s energy policy, allowing it to transport its resources without using land routes, particularly those crossing the Ukraine and Poland.
The Kremlin has since used the incident to step up its rhetoric against the West, accusing ongoing investigations of lacking transparency. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, recently announced that Russia plans to take the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), under the conventions for the suppression of terrorist bombings of 1997 and that against the financing of terrorism in 1999. This announcement follows what Moscow describes as a “Western attempt to cover up” an act of sabotage which compromised strategic infrastructure.
Russia’s accusations and ongoing investigations
European authorities launched investigations, but the results failed to determine those responsible. Germany has issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian national, Volodymyr Z., suspected of being one of the main actors in the attack. Media reports said the suspect fled Poland to Ukraine shortly after the warrant was issued. This situation complicates legal procedures, and the Danish and Swedish investigations were closed without identifying the culprits.
In addition, recent information reported by the Financial Times mentions that elements of the German investigation indicate that Volodymyr Z. would have acted in complicity with other suspects. These reports, based on anonymous sources close to the investigation, suggest that the saboteurs planned the attack in advance, using professional diving techniques to plant underwater explosives at key points on the pipelines.
Impacts on energy relations between Russia and Europe
The impact of these explosions goes beyond material damage. The Nord Stream pipelines were essential for the transit of gas to Europe, and their destruction marked a turning point in energy relations between Russia and the EU. Before the attack, Germany relied on Nord Stream 1 to secure its energy needs, while Nord Stream 2, just built, had not yet started operations. These infrastructures were perceived by Moscow as strategic geopolitical instruments, allowing Russia to bypass traditional routes via Ukraine and reducing the influence of transit countries.
The destruction of pipelines has forced Europe to seek alternative sources of energy supply, increasing its dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported from the United States and Qatar. Germany, the main customer of this infrastructure, has also accelerated its efforts to strengthen the resilience of its energy network. However, these adjustments have a high economic cost and do not yet fully compensate for the losses suffered since the cessation of Russian gas flows.
Legal and diplomatic perspectives
Bringing this case to the International Court of Justice could have significant diplomatic consequences. If Russia can prove that European countries failed to uphold their commitments, it could affect the legitimacy of future investigations into similar incidents. However, this type of procedure can take years and will depend on the recognition of the jurisdiction of the ICJ by the parties involved, which further complicates the situation.
In the meantime, Moscow is keeping up the pressure, saying the Nord Stream explosions were planned by Western forces, a charge the US and UK continue to strongly deny. Russia is also using this affair to strengthen its ties with its non-European partners, such as China, and develop new export routes to Asia to compensate for the loss of its energy revenues in Europe.
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