This Saturday morning, the Israeli army declared that Nasrallah “had been eliminated” alongside other Hezbollah commanders during strikes targeting the group’s headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, following a massive air operation that razed several buildings residential. Information confirmed a few hours later by a Hezbollah press release, explaining that its leader had “joined his great and immortal martyr companions” after leading the party for 32 years.
Nasrallah, who successfully transformed his Iranian-backed Shiite guerrilla movement into the most powerful paramilitary organization in the Middle East, was a central figure in the “Axis of Resistance,” a political-military alliance aligned behind Iran’s regional interests (not without contradictions). His death plunges the country into a deep state of shock. With this execution, Israel profoundly weakens the high command of Hezbollah. It is too early to predict how the situation will develop, both in terms of the response that Hezbollah and, perhaps, its allies will bring to this attack and the reaction of the Lebanese people.
In the Lebanese political field, Hezbollah is the organization that has confronted Israel most directly in recent decades, while pursuing a policy of social assistance in the most marginalized areas of the country. This allowed him to gain a certain popularity among the population, particularly Shiites, but also among other fractions of the Lebanese people. Nasrallah was thus a very important figure on the political and even religious level in Lebanon. Deeply reactionary, its Islamic fundamentalist organization has become an integral part of the regime in recent years and has served to contain and repress various social mobilizations in Lebanon, while the economic situation has been disastrous for several years.
If the elimination of Nasrallah raises the question of who will succeed him at the head of Hezbollah, it also calls into question the organization’s capacity to contain social and political mobilizations. The emergence of other political forces from the popular base, which today supports the Shiite formation and which could break with it, is a real possibility of the situation.
On the other hand, this resounding assassination confronts Iran with a dilemma that is difficult to resolve. As Israel advances with force and undertakes a very brutal offensive in Lebanon, which mobilizes some of the methods proven by the IDF in Gaza, it is difficult to predict the reaction of the Islamic Republic to the blows against its main strategic asset and its main political figure within the “Axis of Resistance”. For Iran, the elimination of Nasrallah is a very significant loss that could have consequences for its regional strategy, and the Iranian leadership knows that it is more than likely that it will be Israel’s next target, despite its attempt to avoid one-upmanship with the colonial state for almost a year.
However, the options are fewer and fewer, and the consequences of decisions taken in these circumstances could be catastrophic for the entire region, in the short, medium and long term. It is not excluded that Hezbollah, hard hit, will be forced to capitulate to the IDF, even temporarily. Even in this scenario, however, there is no guarantee that Israel will accept capitulation. The Israeli state could very well push its offensive further, that is to say, aim for the annihilation of the leadership of the organization and the partial destruction or neutralization of Hezbollah’s military stocks.
As for the Lebanese population, it is still difficult to know how this upheaval will affect them. It has already been hit hard by the 2019 economic crisis and the recent forced displacement of more than tens of thousands of people. The lines of political, religious and ethnic divisions could also shift, both due to the expression of solidarity which is developing with the displaced and by the emergence of new tensions, mainly fueled by the fear of becoming the target of Israeli attacks. , justified by the presence of sympathizers or members of Hezbollah, in non-Shiite regions of the country.
The crisis opened by the offensive could also fuel the speculative practices of the land bourgeoisie, who could take advantage of the situation to increase rent prices, accentuating class tensions in a country overwhelmed by the economic crisis. In other words, the weakening of Hezbollah could in the medium and long term have significant political consequences for the precarious stability of the country, which would harm the interests of Israel and even more those of the imperialist powers. It is not for nothing that behind the scenes Western leaders seem unhappy with the policies of the Israeli government.
Obviously, Israel could never have launched brutal attacks on Lebanon and Gaza without the economic, military and diplomatic support of the imperialist powers. However, they also know that a new era seems to be beginning with the reconfiguration of regional balances. The imperialists cannot allow Israel to turn Lebanon into a new Gaza and thus compromise their interests in the country. But will they be able or willing to stop Israel before all-out war breaks out in the region?
Faced with the mortal danger posed by the Israeli state to Lebanon, only the struggle of workers and popular classes from all countries in the region can prevent the bloodbath that is coming while fighting against complicity. Arab bourgeoisies. In this context and as Israel, waging war in Lebanon, will be even more dependent on supplies from its imperialist allies, solidarity mobilizations with Palestine around the world are of crucial importance. Israel outside Lebanon! Stop the genocide in Gaza! Let’s end the support of imperialist countries for Israel!
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