Key information
- OPEC forecasts a sustained period of rising oil demand, reaching 118.9 million barrels per day by 2045, then 120.1 million bpd by 2050.
- The organization anticipates resistance to ambitious clean energy goals and notes that several global automakers are scaling back their electrification ambitions.
- OPEC highlights the need for substantial investment in the oil sector, estimating needs at $17.4 trillion through 2050.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised upwards its projections for global oil demand, driven by strong growth expected in developing countries such as India, Africa and the Middle East. -East. This outlook diverges from those of other leading forecasters, such as BP and the International Energy Agency, who predict a peak in oil consumption this decade.
Energy demand and global growth
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2024 highlights that future energy demand will come primarily from developing countries experiencing population growth, expanding middle classes and rapid urbanization. This trend fuels OPEC’s optimism, as its 12 member nations rely heavily on oil revenues. The organization anticipates resistance to ambitious clean energy goals and notes that several global automakers are scaling back their electrification ambitions.
Oil demand projections
OPEC forecasts a sustained period of rising oil demand, reaching 118.9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045 and increasing further to 120.1 million bpd by 2050. These figures far exceed the forecasts of other players in the sector. BP expects oil consumption to peak by 2025, with demand falling to 75 million bpd by 2050. Exxon Mobil expects oil demand to remain above 100 million bpd through 2050, in line with current levels.
Investment and collaboration
To meet projected demand, OPEC emphasizes the need for substantial investments in the oil sector, estimating needs at $17.4 trillion through 2050, compared to an estimated $14 trillion for 2045. The organization calls for collaborative efforts between policy makers and stakeholders to foster an environment conducive to investment.
Short-term forecasts and EV adoption
OPEC also raised its medium-term demand forecast, citing a stronger economic outlook characterized by easing inflationary pressure and central banks starting to lower interest rates. Projected global demand will reach 111 million bpd in 2028 and 112.3 million bpd in 2029. These figures exceed the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which predicts a plateau at 105.6 million bpd in 2029.
OPEC+ production cuts
Despite the growth of electric vehicles, OPEC predicts that combustion engine vehicles will continue to dominate the global automobile fleet, accounting for more than 70 percent by 2050. The organization recognizes the challenges that hinder the widespread adoption of EV, including the limits of power grids, battery manufacturing capacity and access to essential minerals.
OPEC+ is currently implementing production cuts to support market stability. The organization projects that OPEC+’s share of the oil market will increase from 49 percent in 2023 to 52 percent in 2050, as U.S. production peaks around 2030 and non-OPEC+ production peaks early in the 2030s.
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