The impeachment procedure for Emmanuel Macron launched by LFI reaches the Assembly, and the hardest part remains to be done

POLITICS – A new battle to be fought, but victory is still a long way off in any case. The impeachment procedure initiated by La France Insoumise against the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron arrives this Tuesday, September 17 at the Bureau of the National Assembly. The second stage of a complex process with very little chance of success.

With 72 deputies in its ranks, France Insoumise had more than enough of the sixty signatures required to pass the first stage provided for by Article 68 of the Constitution, namely the submission of a proposed resolution to dismiss the President of the Republic. In total, 80 deputies signed the project: the entire Insoumis group, five members of the Ecologists group and three communists from the GDR.

Sunday September 15, Mathilde Panot wants to believe it: “ Yes, (the impeachment process) has a chance of succeeding. “, assures the leader of the rebellious elected officials on the set of Sunday in politicson France 3. Beyond the elected officials already won over to the cause, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party has launched a petition for “ask MPs and senators to vote in favour of this approach”On September 16, it collected just over 300,000 signatures out of the 400,000 hoped for. A popular mobilization far from breaking records, and which above all says nothing about the chances of success (or failure) of the procedure.

· In the Assembly, the key stage of admissibility before that of the vote

Once submitted, the admissibility of the proposed resolution must be examined by the bureau of the National Assembly. This is the stage this Tuesday. And on paper, the Bureau is won over by the New Popular Front, which has 12 members out of 22. But the devil is hiding in the disagreements between the left-wing parties.

The Socialist Party is the only group whose MP has not signed the resolution proposal of La France Insoumise. And besides, the former socialist president of the Republic François Hollande publicly opposed it. However, the party with the rose has three elected members within the bureau of the Assembly. Without their votes, even with the vote already acquired by the rebellious, ecologists and GDR, the NFP is no longer in the majority. And “if the Bureau finds that these conditions (of admissibility) are not met, the proposed resolution cannot be put up for discussion”provides the law that governs the procedure. Forget the impeachment procedure.

A few days before the deadline, the LFI executives therefore put pressure on the socialists. We are not asking you to agree. We are asking you to agree to transmit”and of “Let the Law Commission sort it out”pleaded Jean-Luc Mélenchon since the Fête de l’Humanité. A meeting of the pink party finally confirmed on Monday, September 16 that the party would not block the process.

· The ball in the hemicycle of the Palais Bourbon then in the Senate

If the Bureau gives its green light, the proposed resolution will therefore go to the Laws Committee, which will be able to vote for or against it. Then, within the following 13 days, the text will arrive in the chamber where a two-thirds majority is required.

And there, a new mountain to climb. Because bringing together these 392 deputies, in an Assembly where no group has a majority, represents an immense challenge. If they vote as one, the NFP deputies have a maximum of 193 votes. What about Laurent Wauquiez’s right-wing deputies? Even if they all voted in favor, the votes of the 47 elected right-wing representatives would not tip the balance enough. This scenario is all the more improbable since, with Michel Barnier as Prime Minister, the right is undoubtedly the party that benefits the most from “Macron’s coup” denounced by the left. Could the National Rally join forces with the NFP? The operation is not obvious for Marine Le Pen’s group, which likes to present itself as the guarantor of stability in a troubled period.

If, through the game of negotiations and political strategy, the resolution proposal were adopted to the general surprise in the Assembly, it would then go immediately to the Senate. First in the Laws Committee, then in the hemicycle. Here again, everything can stop each time since “the rejection of the proposed resolution by one of the two assemblies terminates the procedure”. At the Luxembourg Palace, Bruno Retailleau’s LR are in the majority. And as for their counterparts in the Assembly, nothing indicates that they will position themselves for a dismissal. Especially, let us remember, with one of their own at Matignon.

· High Court and still the same problem

The final step (hardly credible, as you will have understood) in the event that Parliament adopts the draft resolution: the immediate constitution of the High Court. This special jurisdiction has the sole mission of voting for or against the dismissal of the President of the Republic. It can request to hear the person concerned or his representative, the debates are public and the vote is by secret ballot.

But for the left, the pitfall lies in its constitution. The organic law indicates that the High Court is composed of 22 parliamentarians (deputies and senators) appointed by the offices of the two assemblies. “by trying to reproduce the political configuration of each assembly.” Which does not play in favor of the rebels and the left as a whole, a minority in the Senate and without a majority in the Assembly (even if one can reasonably imagine that parliamentarians who voted favorably in the Assembly or the Senate would make the same choice here). It must be said: Emmanuel Macron and his three remaining years of mandate still have good days ahead of them.

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