Thinkers of international relations like those of IFRI, who applied it to the changing positions of Emmanuel Macron on the war in Ukraine, sometimes name this “strategic ambiguity” or “strategic uncertainty”. To destabilize an adversary, a rival power, a possible future enemy, some leaders thus adopt moving attitudes, make vague, sometimes contradictory remarks, on a given subject.
Leaving in a relative uncertainty a nation with which one wishes to engage in an showdown is then considered as a means of alienating it a little of its room for maneuver, of amputating it of certainties on which it could build its logic policy.
Is it voluntary, or is it the result of a naturally crazy and unpredictable personality and circles? Because it is more and more regularly in this “strategic ambiguity” that Donald Trump, freshly returned to the White House, seems to be pouring.
The four -legged companions of the Ukrainian soldiers
China, Russia: Donald Trump’s strategic ambiguity
His positions on China, for example, now seem uncertain. After strong threats of new customs taxes, which could also bring back the United States in an infernal cycle of inflation and dissatisfaction, the tenant of the oval office now explains that he “would prefer not” Arriving there with Beijing (Bloomberg). How to compose with such a variable caps president? Difficult, no doubt.
What about Russia? Same observation. You could think Donald Trump subservient to the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin, whose interference in the American elections, in favor of the Republican, is now well documented (Les Échos in 2021, Télérama in 2024).
Coming to power, nothing is now less certain as to the wishes of the man who had promised to settle the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. If he started by provoking logical and awaited concerns on the side of kyiv by pause American aid to Ukraine (Le Monde), Donald Trump was thus particularly offensive in front of his Russian counterpart during his first speeches as an invested president.
He notably spoke without any ambage of Putin’s responsibility in the pursuit of the war. “I think he destroys Russia” By refusing a peace plan, he said to the relatively general surprise, referring to a Russian economy whose good apparent figures no longer hide serious underlying crises (politico).
On the social network of which he constituted the figurehead, social social, and as the BBC relays in particular, the American president thus wrote “I will do to Russia, whose economy collapses, a very great favor”.
If we do not quickly find an agreement, I will have no choice but to impose larger taxes, customs duties and sanctions on any thing sold to Russia in the United States, as well as to several other participating countries
The threat is clear, and is added to others. Galloping inflation, finances drained by the expensive war waged in Ukraine, shortage of labor and serious demographic crisis, in particular, begin to give cold sweats to the Russian president himself (Reuters). Vladimir Putin thought he could exhaust Western economies and opinions to crush Ukraine; He sees that time is running out for an bloodless nation, and which will not be able to hold indefinitely on an increasingly fragile warfare.
-It is all the more true that one of the country’s main financial windfalls seems to start to dry up. Because as we explained very recently, it smells of Roussi for these large raw oil reserves that she continued to sell at low prices at China or India, despite Western sanctions and thanks to her “Fan “Tankers in bad condition.
Saudi Arabia, an unexpected ally of Ukraine in front of Russia?
It is in this fragile context for the Russian economy, and this black gold which first finances its armaments factories, that Donald Trump turned to a third nation to do a little more pressure on Vladimir Putin, and Weaken his position before trying to sit at the negotiation table.
As we told in November, Saudi Arabia could thus turn into a terrible enemy for Russia in its race against time, and in its war against kyiv. A still thrilling heart of OPEC, the largest oil producer in the world, the country led by Mohammed Ben Salman has just promised to invest $ 600 million in the American economy (the press).
Which does not seem to be enough for Donald Trump. As Newsweek or Fortune explains in particular, he also asked Riyadh, during an allowance given to the participants of the Davos forum, Switzerland, to activate the lever for oil production.
If Saudi Arabia, which nevertheless needs liquidity to finance its staggering projects, decided with its cartel allies to increase its black gold production, it could lower the prices of gasoline in the world, in First place in the United States, where the question played a sensitive role in the presidential election.
It would also bring, and perhaps above all, a fatal blow to the finances of the Kremlin, that the expenses linked to the war in Ukraine tend until unreason. Just after mentioning Saudi Arabia, the American president partly and indirectly made it responsible for “Millions of lives that are being lost” (sic). “If the oil prices dropped, the war between Russia and Ukraine would stop immediately”he explained to the area of wealthy decision-makers, as well as to the rest of the world.
As I speak, prices are high enough for war to continue. You lower oil prices. You could stop this war.
While also putting pressure on China, which he accuses of being too passive on the question, and well that it is discreetly very active in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Donald Trump thus places part of the game and D ‘A possible peace negotiated in the hands of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Ben Salman and other members of the organization of oil exporting or OPEC+countries.
Russia (knowledge of energies) is certainly part of the group, but it could not much if Donald Trump came to its ends on the price of oil by convincing its main allies within the organization to increase its world production .
Moscow black gold, which she already sells at prices discount In India or China, but which in recent days has been less and less competitive (Bloomberg), would see its price collapse a little more. And the Kremlin is amputated on a greater share of the income which now finances, in Grand-Péine, its deadly war in Ukraine.
