Europe has developed a triple dependence on the United States: military, economic and technological. Dependencies which risk being costly in the coming weeks.
Donald Trump is so unstable that any prediction for his second term is extremely uncertain. Its position being much better than in 2017, we must however expect more abuseegotistical delusions, and even bigger lies. Today, the re-elected president controls the Republican Party, enjoys the support of both houses of Congress as well as the Supreme Court, has a coalition of oligarchs behind him, with whom he has prepared his new presidency. His second mandate therefore promises to be that ofa Trump on steroids. It presents much greater dangers than the first.
These dangers apply especially to Europe. This is a creation of the rule of law, democracy, and international cooperation, all things that Trump hates. In addition, she developed a triple dependence on the United States: military, economic and technological. This explains Trump’s constant hostility during his first term, and since then. Added to this is the feeling that European leaders have sometimes snubbed or ridiculed him.
Europe’s three dependencies will now pay dearly. Trump’s blackmail on customs tariffs particularly hits his (proto-German) economic “model”, based on the promotion of exports and the crushing of internal demand. Demands on increasing military budgets can easily provoke new clashes in NATO. Digital dependence, quickly exploited by Musk and Zuckerberg, is already becoming a new source of friction. We will note, on the three points, the largely paralyzed reaction so far European leaders.
-The reasons for conflict do not end there. The objectives diverge sharply in other respects. The climate for example, where Trump wants to revive the exploitation of fossil fuels. Finance, where he intends to return to the Basel rules to deregulate. Bitcoin, in which he wants to invest. The WHO, whose American withdrawal risks jeopardizing the fight against future pandemics. China, from which he wants Europe to move further away. And Israel, whose violations of international law Trump gleefully supports. Finally, let us add that if a financial crisis occurs, the implementation of a common response will prove very hypothetical.
The impact of these divergences should be all the more brutal since, between 2017 and 2025, the European context has also changed. Many governments are weakened (starting with Germany and France). The rule of law is under greater attack. Above all, the far right, more or less pro-Russian, is growing in several member states. In 2017, America was divided, and Europe relatively united. In 2025, it is quite the opposite.
One point has so far remained under-emphasised, and wrongly so. Trump will be by far the oldest serving American president. Moreover, his mental health already seems compromised in certain respects. We’ll soon talk about the XXVe amendment of the Constitution (on the incapacity of the president). This offers new perspectives to JD Vance, its vice-president. Better (and worse) than Game of Thrones.
