TikTok banned in the United States from Sunday: complete blockage, takeover, political rescue… what future for the social network?

On April 20, 2024, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan law under the leadership of Joe Biden, who plans to ban TikTok in the United States, from January 19, unless the social network cuts its ties with its parent company ByteDanceand more broadly with China.

THE Democrats and Republicans therefore agreed on the adoption of this law targeting companies owned or controlled by hostile foreign powers, China being particularly targeted. “The measure is presented as justified by the fact of protecting the national security of the United States, in particular American personal, sensitive or strategic data”, underlines Valère Ndior, professor of public law in Brest, joined by Free Midday.

American elected officials justified the vote for this law by fears of seeing the data and content of American users exploited by the Chinese authorities, suspected of using the platform as a spy tool (which China has always refuted).

The US Supreme Court has unanimously approvedFriday January 17,entry into force of this law on January 19. But Donald Trump, who will be president again on Monday, asked for time to decide whether to apply it or not.

An attack on freedom of expression

The video platform, popular with young people around the world, is accused by American officials of allowing Beijing to spy on and manipulate its 170 million users in the United Statesthus undermining the freedom of speech. “Digital rights groups, civil society academics criticize the TikTok model saying it is bad for health and well-being, but at the same time condemn the fact that we can take any action l ‘banning. And consider it a violation of the First Amendment.he adds.

The social network plays an essential role for many content creatorsespecially influencers who depend on the platform for their income. “Some go so far as to say that their well-being is at stake, because they can no longer imagine living without TikTok”he observes.

Several scenarios

According to the expert, three scenarios are possible:

1. Complete ban from Sunday : TikTok would be removed from mobile application download platforms and blocked by Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to make the site inaccessible on computers and other connected objects from the United States. Users who have already downloaded the application will no longer be able to open it and will be automatically directed to a message relating to the new legislative provisions and will be invited to download their already published data and content. However, they could try to circumvent the ban through VPN (Editor’s note: virtual private network) to make their connection disappear as coming from another country, but “even then, the absence of updates would make it difficult to use”. In fact, the law does not require everyone to uninstall it, nor does it require TikTok to cut off its service.
2. Political rescue by Donald Trump : The president-elect who had tried to ban TikTok at the end of his first term, in 2020, also in the name of national security, now shows a certain sympathy or affection for the social network, believing that it can be useful for him to carry out its political and governance activities. Donald Trump’s team is exploring numerous options, including the adoption of an executive order that would suspend the application of the law. A legally fragile scenario, because a decree cannot in principle block a law. But once invested, the elected president can choose not to apply the law. The text will therefore fall into the hands of the Ministry of Justice, namely Pam Bondi, who will decide whether or not to initiate possible prosecutions.
3. Acquisition by an American company: ByteDance could sell TikTok to Americans, but the company has always maintained that it would not sell the app. A full sale would likely require China’s permission, as the country has placed parts of TikTok’s algorithms on the list of software subject to export restrictions. The bought-out TikTok could therefore continue to exist “under different governance” and would become a “separate application”. “This would radically change the rules of the game, particularly in terms of moderation and access to content”he explains, insisting that this still raises many questions and questions.

Another scenario : until now, ByteDance had opposed the idea of ​​selling its treasure, but, according to the agency Bloombergthe Chinese government would be open to a takeover by Elon Musk, already majority shareholder of another social network, X (formerly Twitter) and ally of Donald Trump.

However, Biden made it known that his rumors were “completely unfounded” while TikTok called these speculations “pure fiction”. The expert interviewed is of the same opinion: “I think they have no interest in reselling TikTok to Elon Musk”.

A “dangerous precedent”

Beyond the United States, this scenario raises international concerns : “TikTok is not only under threat there. It is subject to restrictions or threats of restrictions in many countries around the world, such as its ban on the phones of civil servants in certain countries in Canada or in the European scale (Editor’s note: since March 2023 in France).”

“This could establish a dangerous precedent, because it could suggest that ultimately on grounds of national security, which are very indeterminate, it is possible to ban a foreign application”warns the one whose research has focused on international law and digital law.

We would thus follow the same logic as that which led to the ban on Facebook Meta in several countries, such as China, citing reasons of national security to justify this ban.

Could TikTok be banned in Europe?

In France and more generally in Europe, criticism of TikTok focuses more on its operation and its consequences on so-called vulnerable users. “The design of the application, which encourages addiction, and the inappropriate content broadcast to young people are often at the heart of the debate”recalls Valère Ndior.

In May 2024, France also blocked TikTok in New Caledonia as part of the state of emergency, a first in the European Union. At the European level, in December 2024, the Commission opened an investigation into the digital platform regarding allegations of electoral interference during the Romanian presidential election.“TikTok would have been used by malicious actors to influence the course of the election”he confirms.

Despite these measures, a total ban on TikTok for the general public in France or Europe seems unlikely at this stage. The European Union generally favors regulatory approaches, such as Digital Services Act (DSA) and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)to regulate the use of technologies and protect user data, rather than imposing complete bans.