The agreement for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages must be a pivotal moment for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose governing coalition could be shaken, but legacy reassessed, analysts say interviewed by AFP.
Most of them agree that the controversies over the Gaza war and its outcome will not dethrone a man often described as a political magician.
The Israeli government has yet to give the green light to the agreement announced Wednesday by Qatar and the United States. He made it conditional on Thursday morning for the resolution of a last minute “crisis” caused, according to him, by a questioning of “certain points” by Hamas.
During more than 15 months of war in Gaza, triggered by the Hamas offensive against Israel on October 7, 2023, the prime minister has been heavily criticized in his country for failing to prevent the attack and for failing to enough to free the hostages early.
He was also accused of prolonging the war, in order to stay in power to escape justice. Mr. Netanyahu is accused of corruption in a lengthy trial, the first sitting head of government to be criminally tried in Israel.
In a letter sent at the beginning of January, some 800 parents of soldiers wrote to him that they could no longer “allow him to continue to sacrifice” their children.
More than 400 soldiers have been killed in the Palestinian territory since the start of the war.
On his other flank, far-right members of his coalition threatened to abandon him in the event of a ceasefire, pushing for months for an even tougher response in Gaza.
Exploit the agreement
Analysts say Mr Netanyahu will likely find a way to exploit the ceasefire deal to his advantage, and perhaps distance himself from the far right.
According to them, he could even reach a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, long sought and supported by the future American president, Donald Trump.
Just before October 7, media reported that Washington was close to sealing the establishment of diplomatic and economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
“Normalization with Saudi Arabia can take place tomorrow based on the work we have done,” recently confirmed the outgoing head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken, at the New York Times.
-“The question is what does Netanyahu get out of the deal, beyond the release of the hostages and the ceasefire,” says Anshel Pfeffer, journalist and author of a biography of the prime minister.
It is possible that the Gaza agreement “is part of something much bigger”, he adds, because the US president-designate, Donald Trump, wants Israeli-Saudi normalization, which raises “the question of the legacy” that Mr. Netanyahu will leave.
Mr. Netanyahu’s hope, he said, is that “a deal with the Saudis will be so wonderful for Israelis that they forget about the hostages and the war dead.” “He also hopes that the international community will move past what happened in Gaza. »
In mid-September, the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, however ruled out recognition of Israel before the “creation of a Palestinian state” alongside that of Israel, something to which Mr. Netanyahu opposes.
Hostages will “haunt” Netanyahu
Gayil Talshir, political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, highlights the fact that Mr. Netanyahu has sufficiently consolidated his coalition with center-right reinforcements to no longer need to rely on the far right. For her too, the agreement could lead to normalization with Riyadh.
“It could well be that [Bezalel] Smotrich et [Itamar] Ben Gvir are not part of such an agreement” and that “Netanyahu is preparing for this day”, she asserts, citing two far-right ministers who have expressed their opposition to the agreement.
Several opposition figures, including its leader, Yair Lapid, have already indicated that they are ready to vote for confidence in Mr. Netanyahu’s government to allow the implementation of an agreement, in the event that his far-right allies would be lacking, she recalls.
For Aviv Bushinsky, political commentator and former chief of staff of Mr. Netanyahu, the political turbulence around the ceasefire “does not change the situation”.
He believes that Mr. Netanyahu’s legacy will remain tainted by October 7 and the fate of the hostages, some of whom he believes may never be found.
“He will want people to remember those he managed to bring back, and not those he could not bring back”, but “this will continue to haunt him”, he judges.
