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French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Lebanon on January 17, 2025, in a political context marked by the election of General Joseph Aoun as president and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister. This visit, which is part of France’s ongoing commitment to Lebanon, reflects a clear expectation: the implementation of structural reforms to save the country from economic and institutional collapse. However, it also comes against a backdrop of harsh criticism made by France towards the mafia practices which are plaguing the country.
A crucial political and economic opportunity for Lebanon
The election of Joseph Aoun as president and the designation of Nawaf Salam as prime minister offer new hope for political stability after more than two years of presidential vacancy and prolonged institutional paralysis. Joseph Aoun, with his experience as commander-in-chief of the army, benefits from an image of neutrality and integrity, while Nawaf Salam, former judge at the International Court of Justice, is seen as a determined reformist to restore confidence in the State.
However, France and the international community have clearly indicated that this new dynamic will only bear fruit if deep and immediate reforms are implemented. These reforms, essential to unlock international aid, aim to restructure a state undermined by decades of corruption.
Critics of France: a system corrupted by the mafia
Emmanuel Macron has not hesitated to strongly criticize the Lebanese system in his past interventions, notably describing the political elites as accomplices of a mafia system. During his visit to Beirut in August 2020, after the port explosion, Macron denounced the absence of governance and the capture of public resources by a corrupt ruling class.
In December 2022, Macron was even more direct, referring to the Lebanese banking sector as an “institutionalized Ponzi scheme”. According to him, Lebanese banks, in collusion with political elites, orchestrated a system where new deposits were used to cover the debts of old creditors, until the system collapsed in 2019, depriving millions of Lebanese of their savings.
“It is not just an economic crisis, it is a betrayal organized by political and economic elites who have put their own interests above those of their people,” he declared at that time.
Reforms demanded by France and the international community
To unlock international aid, estimated at several billion dollars, and restore investor confidence, France insists on the implementation of the following reforms:
-- Banking sector reform : restructure banks and guarantee transparency of financial transactions.
- Fight against corruption : establish independent control mechanisms to monitor the use of public funds.
- Judicial reform : guarantee the total independence of the judiciary in order to prosecute those responsible for corruption.
- State building : ensure the authority of the State over the entire territory, in particular by putting an end to the interference of armed factions in public affairs.
These reforms are also prerequisites for obtaining assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose support is crucial to stabilizing the Lebanese economy.
An economy on the brink of collapse
Lebanon continues to face an unprecedented economic and financial crisis. Since 2019, the Lebanese pound has lost more than 90% of its value, plunging the majority of the population into poverty. The banking sector, once a pillar of the Lebanese economy, is now paralyzed, with depositors unable to recover their blocked funds. According to World Bank data, Lebanese GDP has fallen by almost 40% since the start of the crisis.
This situation has been aggravated by the failure of leaders to adopt corrective measures, despite multiple warnings from the international community. Funds intended for reconstruction after the Beirut port explosion in 2020 were also delayed due to a lack of transparency in their management.
A test for the new Lebanese leadership
Macron’s visit is seen as a signal of hope, but also as a reminder of international demands. The French president hopes that the new management team, with Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam, will live up to expectations. However, the task is immense, because resistance to change remains strong, particularly from political factions and banks that have long profited from the status quo.
A clear message from France: act or lose international support
By going to Beirut, Emmanuel Macron will send a clear message: France remains an ally of Lebanon, but its support is not unconditional. The implementation of reforms and transparency in the management of public affairs will be the keys to restoring confidence, unlocking international aid and initiating a lasting economic recovery.
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