The US takeover of Greenland may already be on its way. When Donald Trump first mentioned this project in 2019, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen dismissed it. Five years later, the hypothesis no longer seems so crazy. Here are different routes by which this takeover could be achieved and their probability of succeeding.
► The use of force
A military invasion followed by annexation would be well within the reach of the world’s leading army, especially since the United States already has a military base in Greenland. The territory of Greenland is vast (2 million km2) but sparsely populated (57,000 inhabitants). Russia showed that anything is possible by annexing Crimea in 2014 and then invading the rest of Ukraine in 2022. It proved that a country member of the United Nations Security Council can suddenly decide to trample all the rules established in the post-war period.
It is unlikely, however, that Donald Trump will imitate Vladimir Putin, because Greenland is now an autonomous territory attached to Denmark, an ally of the United States. It is difficult to imagine that the United States would suddenly decide to go against its values and against the European countries with which it is very close. “The idea expressed about Greenland is obviously not a good one, but perhaps more importantly, it’s not going to happen”also judged Antony Blinken, current American Secretary of State, adding that the United States is “stronger”et “more effective with their allies”.
► A buyout, at what price?
In 2019, Donald Trump raised the idea of a purchase, as if it were a major real estate transaction. The Asterès research firm attempted to estimate the price of Greenland, if it were ever to be sold. He explains in a note the two methods that can be used. The first is based on a comparison with similar sales, which took place in the 19th century, such as the purchase of Alaska in 1867. Asterès then arrived at a price of 77 billion dollars (75 billion euros). However, he believes that this method is not very reliable, because “this amounts to estimating the price of a house based on the sale of a neighboring house a century ago”.
Another method comes at a much higher price: 1,100 billion dollars (1,072 billion euros). It takes “future flows” as a basis and amounts to calculating the price of a good based on what it can bring in. But this is the estimated price of the resources contained in the subsoil of Greenland. The study recognizes, however, that this price does not take into account the cost of extraction, nor the financing of Greenland’s infrastructure. She also explains that this entire calculation remains hypothetical, because there has not been a sale of a country since that of the Virgin Islands in 1915, bought by the United States.
Additionally, Greenland is no longer a colony. Copenhagen, even if it wanted to, couldn’t sell it. “Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders, who are the only ones who can decide their future », has been repeating for several days Mute Egede, the young prime minister of the Arctic territory.
► Support for independentists
The most realistic path to taking control of Greenland involves supporting the independence movement, which continues to gain ground. Prime Minister Mute Egede, leader of the Inuit Ataqatigiit (“Community of the People”) party, is an outspoken supporter of independence. He wants to organize a self-determination referendum next year. “Greenland would already have the right to do this without seeking authorization from Copenhagen, given its current status”explains Tamara Espiñeira, teacher at Sciences Po Rennes.
The United States’ offer today provides support to the separatists. It shows that Greenland can find other partners tomorrow if it no longer has the support of Denmark to subsidize its economy. During a press conference on Monday January 13, Mute Egede also indicated: “We need to do business with the United States. We began to engage in dialogue and seek opportunities for cooperation with Trump. » The territory guards “its open doors in terms of mining. It will be the same in the years to come”he insisted.
If the independence process goes through, the United States could offer Greenland an association agreement similar to that which exists with Micronesia. The United States ensures the security of these Pacific states with a military base and finances the maintenance of local infrastructure through a grant. “It’s a model that can easily be duplicated with Greenland”explains Tamara Espiñeira. “Already, the United States is very present,” notes the researcher, who nevertheless asks questions about such a scenario. «In the event of a natural disaster who would provide relief? And in the event of independence, what currency would be used? »she asks.
Greenland already has a large degree of autonomy and could become permanently emancipated. For Tamara Espiñeira, everything indicates that the United States, “already present”are not ready to leave. “Everyone thinks Donald Trump is crazy, he’s just brutal”underlines the researcher.
