A good deal and trade which will reach records in 2024. The combined imports and exports of Russia and China reached around 240 billion euros last year. They thus appear to be up around 2% compared to the 235.3 billion euros recorded in 2023, according to official figures from Chinese customs. This is a historic level, even if the increase in these exchanges has slowed significantly compared to the strong surge recorded between 2022 and 2023 (+26.3%).
China and Russia continue their rapprochement, which has intensified since the war in Ukraine and the economic sanctions imposed on Moscow. Beijing, which presents itself as a neutral actor, has repeatedly refused to condemn the Russian invasion. In a New Year’s message to Vladimir Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said the two powers “continue to advance hand in hand on the righteous path of non-alignment”according to official media.
Raw materials
In detail, Russia mainly exports oil and gas to China worth more than $94 billion in 2023, according to figures from the International Trade Center. In addition to energy resources, Moscow exports many minerals, raw materials and manufactured products.
Enough to continue to fuel the Russian war machine despite Western sanctions and Europe’s increasingly weak dependence on gas from Russia. The European Union also plans to free itself from all natural gas coming from the country by 2027. For its part, China has mainly exported technological goods and manufactured products to Russia.
Furthermore, Russia now mainly uses the yuan to settle its trade with China. A sign that Beijing is extending its influence and wants its currency to surpass the hegemony of the American dollar but also that Moscow wants to dedollarize its economy a little more. According to a Cepii note from September 2023, Russia, in “ dedollarizing” its foreign exchange reserves, allowed the ruble, after having depreciated sharply against the dollar following the outbreak of the conflict and the sanctions of February 2022, to quickly return to its pre-war level ».
Strained relations with the United States
For comparison, trade between China and the United States – the world’s two largest economies – also increased in 2024 compared to last year, increasing by 3.7% for a total amount of around 675, 1 billion euros, according to Chinese customs data. But trade relations could soon deteriorate with the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House.
The US president-elect has promised to increase tariffs on Chinese imports after his inauguration scheduled for next week. During his presidential campaign, he considered imposing 10 to 20% customs duties on all products entering the United States, and even up to 60% or even 100% on those coming from China. Enough to raise fears of a trade war.
