Aura Sabadus, energy markets expert with consultant ICIS, believes that the end of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine had been anticipated by the markets. She therefore believes that this data was already incorporated into the prices. “Gas flows have adapted to the new realityshe adds. Central European countries, which were dependent on Russian gas, currently import volumes from western and southern Europe..
Additional sources of LNG
In addition, even if this winter is colder than the two previous ones, temperatures have remained consistent with, or even higher than, seasonal averages, she says. “For now, forecasts are for a mild winter in Europe and Asia.”she adds. As a result, there is no big competition between Europe and Asia to attract liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships to their respective territories. Remember that it is this competition, between Europe and Asia, which is driving up gas prices on their markets.
Furthermore, this expert compiled interesting figures on the additional supply of LNG which should arrive on the world market in 2025. As a reminder, the energy crisis had pushed several countries to extract more natural gas and export it in the form of of LNG. Several projects, launched during the crisis, will be operational this year.
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At the end of 2024, the first shipment from the American company Venture Global left Plaquemine (Louisiana), bound for Germany. In addition to the United States, export facilities are expected to open in Mexico, Canada and Senegal in 2025.”In total, these projects will add 60 billion cubic m3 per year to the global supply of LNG.”explains Aura Sabadus. In short, much more than the 15 billion m3 lost with the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine.
