He added a layer on Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago, where he spends his time, under the palm trees, inundating us with messages that make us dizzy.
This time, he threatens to use, and I quote, “economic force” to bring Canada into the American fold. Not military force, but force of business.
Following his reasoning, either we agree to become the 51st American state and it becomes our friend, our protector, or we say no, not!, and who knows if the United States would continue to spend “hundreds of billions of dollars” annually to protect the border.
A 51st American state. What was first interpreted as a bad joke in the presence of Justin Trudeau, this insulting “concept” is becoming a deafening noise.
But even more deafening is this threat to impose tariffs of 25% on all goods entering the United States, as the Republican billionaire has hammered out in recent weeks.
This threat, as we well suspect, is taken very seriously by the Quebec – and Canadian – manufacturing sector, which exports 75% of its production to our neighbors to the South.
A survey carried out during the week of December 11 by the Manufacturers Exporters of Quebec (MEQ) confirmed these apprehensions.
Here is the summary of this survey conducted in conjunction with the Canadian Export Manufacturers.
1) Nearly 90% of companies say these impacts would be “significant or very significant”.
2) Nearly one in two companies (46.5%) could relocate their production to counter tariffs. This would result in jobs being eliminated to benefit the American workforce.
3) Nearly one in two companies (45.5%) would delay or cancel their investment plans. This would deprive local entrepreneurs of winning contracts for factory expansion work.
4) Four out of 10 companies would reduce team size and/or pause recruiting efforts. Which means that job prospects would be diminished.
Show who is boss?
Faced with such observations, there is no need to specify that manufacturers do not see a flourishing future, at least in the short term, if Donald Trump and his gang carry out the tariff threat.
The question, however, is whether this is a desire to cause temporary pain to show who is the one bossor a protectionist policy that will last over time.
“It’s not an ideal situation,” agrees Julie White, vice-president of public affairs and interim spokesperson for Export Manufacturers.
It must be understood that the manufacturing sector is a heavyweight within the economy, with a contribution of 12.8% to Quebec’s gross domestic product (GDP).
It should also be remembered that manufacturing companies, numbering 13,747, alone generate sales of $214.8 billion and employ 503,600 people.
That’s it for the statistics. Now let’s talk about their concerns. We already know that steel, aluminum and lumber are subject to tariffs on exports.
Tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, it will be the turn of the aeronautics industry, the automobile sector, the energy sector, finally, everything that is manufactured in our manufacturing facilities, in Quebec, in Ontario and other provinces that make business with our American neighbors.
It is not without reason that on this side of the border, we are talking about a shock wave. The entire economy will be penalized because of an administration that intends to turn in on itself, falsely believing that this would be beneficial for the health of its own businesses.
Someone will have to pay these prices. Starting with American importers.
Fight back or turn your cheek?
Let’s return to the tariff threat. Could it be that prices are not increased uniformly, with variations of 10, 15 and 25%, depending on the targeted sectors?
Could it be, but this time it would be frankly surprising, that the authoritarian president changes his mind midway, once he has scared everyone?
And what about supply management?
Because we should especially not forget that the very powerful and no less very influential dairy producers of Wisconsin continue to demand that Canada stop “protecting” its producers and “subsidized” milk.
We will have to see, in the meantime, whether Donald Trump will demand that we renegotiate the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement earlier than expected, just to rewrite chapters in his own way, that is to say by imposing rather than proposing.
This is a file to follow.
We will also have to closely monitor what will happen in Ottawa over the coming weeks. With a Canadian government in intensive care, the new American administration will take office with tenfold power. The balance of power of Canada and its negotiators has just taken a hit.
Those who believe Pierre Poilievre capable of rectifying the situation and making Donald Trump listen to reason are dreaming in color. Although it seems to please Elon Musk, who described as “excellent” the interview broadcast on X last Thursday where the conservative spoke, among other things, about immigration.
Besides, how will the opposition parties behave when the time comes to defend Canada on tariff concerns?
“The political class should be rowing in the same direction on the issues we face on tariffs,” argues Julie White. We need everyone on Parliament Hill to be able to work together.”
“It is an economic issue which could have consequences on the regions. We need a strong united front against the American government.”
— Julie White, vice-president public affairs and interim spokesperson for Export Manufacturers
In other words, manufacturers who have their noses glued to their daily activities would like the opposition parties to “put aside their partisanship.”
Let’s hope that the “lesson givers”, who have been chewing potatoes (a tasty expression from the colorful legal columnist Claude Poirier) since the announcement of Justin Trudeau’s resignation, will hear this message.
