The collapse of Hafedh Al-Assad’s regime in Syria, presented as a big geostrategic loss for Russia, could, on the contrary, represent, for Vladimir Putin, an opportunity to reformulate your strategies, redeploy its troops and make gains in other regions of the world.
Miracles Bahri
The collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime was a political earthquake that shook the corridors of the Kremlin and demonstrated Moscow’s inability to protect its main ally in the Middle East. This setback represented a huge strategic loss, especially since Russia – with the Islamic Republic of Iran – saved the Al-Assad family regime between 2015 and 2017.
In an article published by the Israeli newspaper Maarivgeopolitics specialist Anat Hochberg Marom explained that this failure caused serious damage to Russia’s position as a world power, affected the personal prestige of its president Vladimir Putin and weakened the Russian presence in Syria with a redeployment in Libya.
However, she points out, the collapse of the Syrian regime represents an opportunity for Putin to reformulate his strategies and make gains in other regions. While Moscow appears to be facing major challenges, its new strategies could restore it to a position of strength on the international scene.
Despite the setback suffered in Syria, Russia is indeed trying to reorganize itself in this country by resorting to diplomatic measures consisting of negotiating with the rebels now in power in Damascus. These measures include recognizing the interim government and removing organizations such as Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham from the list of terrorist organizations.
Moscow also seeks to maintain its military presence in Syria, particularly in its bases in Tartous (naval) and Hmaymim (air).
Geopolitical changes in sight
This strategy aims to secure new trade corridors passing through Syria and Afghanistan despite the risks linked to the exacerbation of tensions and the return of regional terrorist activity.
The analyst also underlines that Turkey’s growing role in Syria constitutes a new challenge for Moscow, which has prompted it to improve its relations with Ankara and strengthen its military cooperation, particularly in terms of air defense and missiles. S-400 with the aim of reducing Ankara’s dependence on Washington.
Furthermore, Russia is attempting to exploit its increasing logistical reliance on Turkey to strengthen its regional and international influence, indicating further geopolitical shifts.
At the same time, Moscow is working to improve relations with Gulf Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which fear Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambitions in the region.
For Marom, these transformations could have a direct impact on Ukraine and push Putin to intensify his military operations in this country, in order to compensate for the losses suffered in the Middle East.
Putin therefore has the opportunity to focus on Ukraine which is considered the main strategic objective because victory in his war against kyiv does not only mean obtaining military gains but rather represents an essential step in the confrontation with the United States. United and their Western allies.
Redeployment to Africa and the Arctic
At the same time, Russia seeks to compensate for its losses in the Middle East by expanding its influence in Africa, particularly in Libya. Moscow has started transferring weapons and military equipment to regions such as Tobruk and Benghazi to strengthen its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean region.
This presence in Libya is important at a time when political and security crises in Africa are legion and Russia has become a leading protagonist in the continent, especially in the Sahel region where it has supplanted France.
The aims of Putin’s strategy also concern a completely different territory. Moscow sees the Arctic as a strategic opportunity to compensate for its losses in Syria, especially since this region, which is experiencing a significant increase in commercial activities due to melting ice, represents a new arena for expanding the influence of the Russia which claims to control 70% of the resources there. Moscow also plans to develop its ports along the Northern Sea Route as part of the “Polar Silk Road” through which it seeks to improve trade relations between Europe and Asia.
The Israeli analyst concludes the article by saying that these developments reflect a transition towards a more multipolar world than ever, with Russia now focusing on strengthening its relations with China and Brics countries such as India, Brazil and South Africa. This trend could give it an opportunity to reshape its international position despite the setback suffered in Syria.
