Talks have intensified again in recent days with a view to a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages. Here’s where the discussions stand.
What is being negotiated between Hamas and Israel?
Indirect negotiations resumed last weekend in Doha, mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States.
The discussions focus on the release of 34 Israeli hostages in exchange for a temporary cessation of fighting in Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners. The agreement should also provide for the entry of humanitarian aid into the besieged territory.
Since October 7, 2023, only one agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas. By the end of November 2023, 105 Israeli and foreign hostages were exchanged for 240 Palestinian prisoners and a seven-day truce.
Other rounds of negotiations have been held since then, but they have failed.
What’s blocking?
Hamas released a list of 34 hostages, aged 1 to 86, who could be released. According to a leader of the terrorist group, “all the women, the sick, the children and the elderly” are there.
Israel said that this list was at the heart of discussions last July, but that several hostages have since died.
Hamas says it needs “a week of calm”, that is to say without bombings, to locate the hostages and determine their condition. Israeli government spokesman David Mencer rejected the claim and responded that Hamas “precisely knows” where the hostages are and knows their condition. “Gaza is not very big,” he stressed.
According to the Times of Israelthe Jewish state seeks to maximize the number of living hostages that could be released, while Hamas wants to keep as many as possible until a permanent ceasefire is achieved.
The Washington Post argues that discussions also stall over the number of Palestinian prisoners who could be released and their identity. Hamas is demanding the release of high-profile prisoners, such as Marwan Barghouti, a political leader who played a key role in the first and second intifadas. Several members of the Netanyahu government would be reluctant to let him out.
Why are the discussions not focused on the release of all the hostages?
Pressure is high in Israel for the government to complete an agreement that would free all the hostages. Fifteen months after the Hamas attack, 96 hostages are still in the hands of the terrorists. According to Israeli intelligence, 34 of them died in captivity.
Hamas does not oppose the release of all the hostages, but demands in exchange a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
For months, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused this possibility. He maintains that a permanent cessation of fighting would allow Hamas to remain in power in Gaza.
On Tuesday, 112 family members of hostages filed a petition in court, accusing the Israeli government of failing to do everything in its power to secure the release of their loved ones.
According to the Israeli daily Haaretzthe court document states that “the government illegally abandoned the hostages for 459 days, violating their constitutional rights to life, bodily integrity and human dignity.”
The families are urging the government to accept a total cessation of fighting and a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of all hostages. According to the Times of Israelpolls show that the majority of Israelis support such an end to the crisis.
If the negotiated partial agreement is accepted by Israel and Hamas, could it pave the way for a permanent ceasefire?
If an agreement is reached, it could constitute the first phase of a broader agreement leading to the release of all hostages and a lasting truce in Gaza.
According to the Washington Postthis first stage — leading to the release of the 34 hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, a temporary cessation of fighting and a massive entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza — would stretch over six to eight weeks .
If the agreement holds, it could lead to other phases and possibly to a return to Israel of all the hostages, a permanent truce and discussions on the reconstruction and political future of Gaza.
According to Reuters, the United Arab Emirates have already offered to participate, jointly with the United States, in an interim administration of the Gaza Strip “until a reformed Palestinian Authority is able to take matters in hand” .
Why is there momentum in the negotiations now?
Israel and Hamas are under pressure from the United States to reach a deal quickly. Joe Biden’s government hopes to end the fighting by the end of its mandate on January 20.
For his part, the next President Donald Trump promises to take violent action against Hamas if he does not return all the hostages. On Tuesday, he reiterated for a third time his threat to bring “hell” to Gaza if all the hostages have not returned to Israel by January 20, the day he is sworn in.
“All hell is going to break loose in the Middle East, and it’s not going to be good for Hamas, and it’s not going to be good — frankly — for anyone,” Mr. Trump said at a press briefing at Mar-a-Lago, in Florida.
