The announcement of Justin Trudeau’s upcoming resignation muddies the waters for politicians, and his prorogation of the House raises eyebrows among some political observers.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on Monday, also indicating that the House will be prorogued until March 24. Parliamentary work will therefore be suspended until then, which gives the Liberals time to find someone else to occupy the leadership.
The Prime Minister therefore avoids triggering an election by requesting the extension of the House of Commons until March 24, when it was normally supposed to sit in January. As soon as the House sits again – with, presumably, a new person leading the country – there is likely to be a vote of confidence, which will likely trigger an election.
According to Stéphanie Chouinard, associate professor of political science at Queen’s University, Justin Trudeau is using “all the tools at his disposal” to ensure that his party begins its electoral campaign “with as many cards in hand as possible” by making kind of postpone the elections to give the Liberal Party the chance to elect a new leader.
“We can ask ourselves questions about the democratic validity of this decision,” says the political scientist. Despite this, she maintains that it is a tool at her disposal as prime minister.
Following the Prime Minister’s announcement on Monday, a journalist reminded Justin Trudeau that Stephen Harper used the same tool in 2008 to avoid calling an election at a time that would have been unfavorable for his party, when he risked losing a vote of confidence. This was criticized by the Liberal leader at the time, Stéphane Dion.
In response to this, Justin Trudeau argued that his government won three votes of confidence in the House before the holidays. But since then, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has said he will bring down the government in the next confidence vote.
“We will have to retest the confidence of the chamber in March and pass the budgetary elements necessary to make the government function,” indicated Mr. Trudeau.
Justin Trudeau said he requested the prorogation of the house because parliament is “paralyzed,” despite his efforts.
Political scientist Roger Ouellette doesn’t believe it.
“We see here the decision to request the extension, it is based solely on political, liberal considerations, and it has nothing to do with Parliament,” says Roger Ouellette, professor at the School of Advanced Public Studies in the University of Moncton.
He says courts have already ruled on the issue. A judgment of the Supreme Court of Great Britain issued in 2019. This court determined that Boris Johnson’s attempt to prorogue the House for a period of approximately one month was unlawful.
The political scientist expects that groups will challenge this decision by Justin Trudeau in court, and that they will rely on this judgment.
Democracy Watch said in a statement Monday that it intended to contest any request to prorogue Parliament “if such prorogation is clearly in the Liberal interest, and it comes at a time where the opposition parties will clearly vote against the confidence of the government.
The group is urging parties to come together to pass some key bills that have already been considered by the House, including bills to protect whistleblowers and bills to protect Canadian elections of foreign interference.
If the chamber is dissolved for an election, these bills would die on the order paper.
-A resignation that raises several questions
An Angus Reid poll released Friday indicates that Chrystia Freeland would have a slight lead in voting intentions against other potential candidates if she were to replace Justin Trudeau at the head of the party, including Mark Carney, Mélanie Joly, François- Philippe Champagne, Dominic LeBlanc and Anita Anand.
The survey of 2,406 Canadians of voting age, however, shows that a majority of respondents indicated that the leadership of the Liberal Party would make no difference in their voting intentions. It also indicates that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives still have a good lead among decided voters.
In the hypothetical scenario where Chrystia Freeland becomes leader of the Liberal Party, she would have the support of 21% of voters, compared to 36% for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. If Justin Trudeau remained prime minister, he would only have 13% of support, compared to 39% for the Conservatives.
Political scientist Stéphanie Chouinard indicates, however, that Justin Trudeau’s resignation is not good news for the opposition parties, including the Conservative Party, which hoped to campaign against the Prime Minister, precisely because of his lack of popularity.
The professor indicates that the “discontent” towards the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau is “fundamentally personal”. Removing Justin Trudeau from the portrait therefore muddies the waters for the opposition parties.
“This means that a change at the head of the Liberal Party is bad news for the opposition parties, because no matter who replaces Mr. Trudeau, they will never be as unpopular as Mr. Trudeau is currently,” she says.
Susan Holt thanks Trudeau
Susan Holt, Premier of NB, thanked Justin Trudeau “for his service to Canada and Canadians.”
“I imagine it’s not an easy decision to make, so I think now we can move forward in a new direction,” she said in an interview.
She distanced herself from Justin Trudeau during the provincial election campaign, but met with him after the election. She says Ottawa has been “a good partner” for her provincial government over the past two months.
She did not want to specify whether she believes the Prime Minister’s resignation is good news for her province.
“It honestly depends on who replaces him, because we have issues in New Brunswick that need a good partner in Ottawa,” she said, mentioning the school food program and agreements relating to housing projects and access to health care.
In a press release, Susan Holt also indicates that the country must “stand together” in the face of the threat of tariffs from the United States.
She did not want to comment on the legality of the extension, saying that she leaves this question to political scientists.
