The price of gold is under notable downward pressure at the start of the week. After hitting a nearly three-week high at 2 665 $ Friday, the ounce of gold is now trading around 2 625 $testing the critical threshold of the 100-day moving average.
Also read: Can gold break a new price record in 2025?
US bond yields at their highest
Recent signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicate a moderation in rate cuts planned for 2025, strengthening US Treasury bond yields. The 10-year rate thus reached its highest level since last May, turning investors away from gold, considered a non-remunerating asset.
In this context, the US dollar remains robust, consolidating its gains near a two-year high reached recently. This strength limits the prospects of a rebound for the yellow metal, despite a tense economic and geopolitical climate.
The impact of global tensions
Geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the markets. Conflicts in the Middle East, including ongoing clashes in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as escalating Houthi attacks on Israel, add significant uncertainty. At the same time, in Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s surprise counter-offensives against Russian forces are exacerbating risks on the international stage.
These factors reinforce demand for gold as a safe haven, preventing deeper losses despite hawkish signals from the Fed and positive economic data.
Technical analysis: critical thresholds under pressure
From a technical perspective, immediate support for the gold price lies around 2 625 $corresponding to the 100-day moving average. In the event of a break, a withdrawal towards the 2 600 $even the 2 583 $could begin. A decisive break below these levels could accelerate selling and pave the way for deeper losses.
Conversely, a recovery beyond 2 647 $ could propel the price of gold towards 2 665 $. If this threshold is crossed, new resistance could emerge between 2 681 $ et 2 700 $a key pivot point for investors.
What to watch: US employment data
This week, investors’ eyes will be glued to the earnings report. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)expected Friday. This report, which measures the evolution of employment outside the agricultural sector in the United States, is a crucial indicator for assessing the economic health of the country. The consensus is on the creation of 150,000 jobsafter a digit of 227 000 in December.
A positive surprise could strengthen the US dollar, adding further pressure on gold. Conversely, a lower-than-expected reading could provide temporary respite for the precious metal.
Persistent volatility
In an environment marked by economic and political tensions, movements on the price of gold remain unpredictable. Investors will continue to navigate U.S. economic signals and global uncertainties to adjust their positions in this complex market.
