Blamed by Azerbaijan for the plane crash in Kazakhstan, defeat in Syria, questioned about its reliability in Africa, Russia suffered several foreign policy setbacks.
Arriving in a position of strength for discussions with the United States on the future of Ukraine at a time when, from his inauguration on January 20 as president, Donald Trump will be in charge is a priority objective for Vladimir Putin. Its army responds quite effectively to this demand on Ukrainian soil by increasing its territorial conquests in recent weeks. in the southeast of the occupied country. On the other hand, the prospects are less encouraging for Russia in its relations with certain foreign partners. Illustration in Azerbaijan, Syria and North Korea.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev became very angry on December 29, four days after the “accident” suffered by an Embraer plane from Azerbaijan Airlines which was flying between Baku and Grozny, in the Russian Caucasus. “Admit [sa] guilt, timely apologize to Azerbaijan, which is considered a friendly countryand informing the public about it, these are all measures and steps that should have been taken,” he expressed on national television, thus castigating the desire, for several days, of the Russian authorities to hide the causes of the crash.
Echec au Upper-Karabakh
Vladimir Putin had, however, already made a re-entry curve by apologizing to his counterpart during a telephone interview, recognizing that Russian anti-aircraft fire had been fired at the time of the aircraft’s flight, but without admitting that They were the cause of the tragedy. According to an Azerbaijani official, the head of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, Alexander Bastrykin, went a step further by assuring that “intensive measures are taken to identify the culprits and bring them to criminal accountability for their actions”, which could be interpreted as an admission of responsibility. The last two major uncertainties to be resolved on this issue would then consist of determining whether, as the Russians claim, Grozny, the Chechen “capital” where the Embraer was to land, was the target of a Ukrainian drone attack at the same time. , And why the aircraft was diverted to an airport in Kazakhstan, damaged, it was ultimately unable to return, instead heading to closer airstrips in Russia.
However, we must not overinterpret Ilham Aliyev’s vindictiveness, mainly aimed at his population, legitimately angry at the series of errors which caused the tragedy (38 deaths). However, it marks a change in the balance of power between the Azerbaijani president and Vladimir Putin. The Nagorno-Karabakh crisis in September 2023 had already provided a demonstration. Baku then inflicted a snub on Russia by expelling the Armenians living there from the Armenian enclave of Azerbaijan, while Moscow, Yerevan’s supporter, was guarantor of the ceasefire agreement concluded at the end of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. Russia’s passivity faced with the Baku army’s reconquest of the enclave in 2023 had been attributed to the mobilization of its forces on the Ukrainian front.
“In Azerbaijan as in Syria, the weakening of Russia is being exploited by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey.”
Loss of influence in the Middle East
The same argument is put forward today to explain the inaction of the Russian aviation during the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assadgreat ally of Vladimir Putin, on the night of December 7 or 8. It would have bombed only a few positions of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTC) rebels at the start of their offensive, then giving up on thwarting their rapid progress. Russia, however, would have protected the backs of the Assad family, by granting them golden asylum in Moscow, and its own by speaking with the HTC to guarantee the security of its military installations (especially the naval bases of Tartous and the air bases of Hmeimim).
Anxious to maintain an honorable profile and give his country the best chance of recovering, the new master of Syria, Ahmed Al-Charaa, probably has no interest in making a definitive break with Russia, as he has been told. recommended Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha for a surprise visit to Damascus on December 30. However, the fall of ally Bashar al-Assad – the Al-Charra-Sybiha meeting bears witness to this – seriously calls into question Vladimir Putin’s power of influence in the region. Here too, the Ukrainian war effort affects the international credibility of the Russian president. In Azerbaijan as in Syria, this weakening is exploited by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey, skillful at advancing its pawns in its immediate environment.
In addition, the Syrian example generally questions Russia’s ability to provide solid support to its partners. The subject is particularly sensitive for leaders who, in Sahelian Africa, have swapped a French defense system against a promise of Russian securityeven though she was honored by the Africa Corps mercenary group, made up mainly of Wagner alumni.
In Russia itself, the partnership sealed with North Korea for the provision of soldiers sent to the Kursk frontin the part of the country where an incursion by the Ukrainian army will take place in the summer of 2024, does not seem to meet all expectations in terms of efficiency. Of the 11,000 deployed in this region, 3,000, according to kyiv, 1,100, according to a source in South Korea, have already been killed or injured. In this case, however, Vladimir Putin seems immune from having to be held accountable, as he was exposed by Ilham Aliyev in the case of the plane “crash” in Kazakhstan. Kim Jong-un is not known for giving in to the – and unlikely – recriminations of his population.
