These documents reveal a “serious concern from Moscow regarding its eastern flank“, who fears”an attack by US forces and regional allies“. Indeed, since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the United States has deployed military forces to South Korea and Japan. The two Asian countries have also joined an export control coalition led by Washington, thus putting pressure on the Russian defense industry.
“What really worries me is that one of these attacks could spread significantly”: what about Russian hybrid attacks against NATO?
For William Alberque, former head of NATO arms control interviewed by our American colleagues, this demonstrates that “the European and Asian theaters of war are directly and inextricably linked“. “Asia cannot stand aside from a conflict in Europe, any more than Europe can sit idly by if a war breaks out in Asia.”
“In the event of a conflict with North Korea or China, Japan would be warned sufficiently in advance. We might have time to prepare and try to act. But in the event of a horizontal escalation with Europe (a conflict with Russia spreading from Europe, Editor’s note), Tokyo’s warning time would be shorter and Japan would have less possibility of avoiding a conflict by his own means“, worries Michito Tsuruoka, associate professor at Keio University and former researcher at the Japanese Ministry of Defense. Russia “is not often perceived as a security threat by ordinary Japanese“, he adds.
Russia and its relays play perfectly on fear: “We are witnessing the rise of an ideological system”
However, documents dating back several years, the recent war in Ukraine showed that the capabilities of the Kh-101 missile were overestimated (Russian military plans estimated the chances of destroying the Okushiritou base with 12 missiles at 85%, Editor’s note) and that it was not so effective. “The Kh-101 is equipped with an external engine, a feature common to Soviet and Russian cruise missiles. However, this design significantly increases the missile’s radar signature“, explains Fabian Hofman, doctoral student at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP) at the University of Oslo. The researcher also explains that this missile lacks precision. “For missile systems with limited destructive power that rely on precision to destroy targets, this is an obvious problem.“
Putin’s spokesperson Dmitri Peskov did not respond to requests from Financial Times.
