Heavy rains are expected in several parts of the country. Rising water levels cannot be ruled out.
The 2024-2025 hurricane season is taking its course and with it, heavy rains synonymous with flooding. The alert is also given by the General Directorate of Meteorology which informs of the risks of flooding for the regions: Diana, Sava, Sofia (East), Alaotra Mangoro (North), Atsinanana (North), Ambatosoa and Analanjirofo. Forecasts from the country’s weather service indicate precipitation above the seasonal normal for the regions in question plus the eastern part of the Betsiboka region. Forecasts which should run from January to March 2025. Precipitation would however be normal to below the seasonal normal for the Vatovavy, Fitovinany regions, the southern part of the Atsinanana and Melaky regions. The eastern part of the Amoron’i mania and Haute Matsiatra regions as well as the extreme north-west of the Atsimo Andrefana region are also affected.
Activity
As for short-term forecasts, a large low-pressure area is currently located in the North-East of Madagascar. Two suspect areas could develop to storm stage if existing forecast models are followed. However, this does not indicate a direct threat to inhabited lands, at least for the next five days. Forecasters monitor changes in weather conditions and announcements will be made especially in the event of cyclonic activity involving and threatening the Big Island. As for flood risk advisories in several regions for the coming months, they (the advisories) come back every year like floods elsewhere. It remains to be seen whether lessons have been learned to avoid the worst.
José Belalahy
