London (awp/afp) – Oil prices fell on Monday, the effects of the planned recovery in China being awaited, as evidenced by the indicator of retail sales which have slowed in the country.
Around 09:50 GMT (10:50 CET), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in February, lost 0.71% to $73.96.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in January, fell 0.95% to $70.61.
“The Chinese statistics for November remain disappointing,” explains Bjarne Schieldrop, analyst at SEB and for whom Beijing’s recovery measures have not yet reached the scale sufficient to revive the country’s economy.
Retail sales grew just 3% year-on-year in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced, a significant slowdown from 4.8% recorded in October.
This figure is significantly lower than the forecasts of analysts surveyed by the Bloomberg agency (5%).
China is the world’s largest importer of oil and its economic health is decisive for the price of black gold. Its economic growth will remain slowed “without a radical change in the spending behavior of individuals”, says John Evans, analyst at PVM.
Beijing has announced in recent months a series of measures to support its economy, including a future easing of its monetary policy, but some experts believe that a more direct budgetary stimulus to boost consumption is necessary to fully restore health. of the Chinese economy.
Furthermore, Western sanctions on Russian and Iranian “ghost” tanker fleets are at the heart of black gold intrigues. Last week, prices rose, particularly with “forecasts of sanctions against Russia and Iran”, recalls John Plassard, analyst at Mirabaud.
“More and more Chinese buyers are refusing sanctioned ships,” reports Bjarne Schieldrop.
According to the analyst, China, which buys “nearly 90% of the oil exported by Iran”, risks being put under pressure on this subject by the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House, and will choose “without difficulty” of maintaining its trade with the United States rather than persisting in buying Iranian oil.
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